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Greedy bearoff question

Posted By: NJ
Date: Sunday, 1 January 2012, at 1:34 a.m.

In Response To: Greedy bearoff question (Michael Depreli)

I just wrote a program that does the following:

For each bearoff position (54263 * 54263, not counting positions where either side have all pieces borne off) and for each of the 21 rolls:

  1. If there is only 1 move possible, don't count the position.
  2. If there is no unique greedy move, don't count the position.
  3. Count the position. If the greedy move isn't best, count it as a bad position.

Note: the best move is determined by a 1 sided bearoff database which doesn't always get the best move right.

Anyways, I didn't optimize the program at all, it was just cobbled together from various parts of my backgammon app. For example, it doesn't take advantage of multiple cores or anything like that. On my not-so-fast PC, I estimate that it would take 9.5 days to spit out the final answer. I don't plan on running it for that long so if this is important to you Michael, you can contact me about getting the program for yourself.

Anyways, for the curious, this is the result so far:

Wrong = 560810, Total = 50027760, Percent = 1.120998

However the percentage has been continually trending upwards because the lower numbered positions are the ones with fewer pieces and so there is less chance for error in those positions. At the rate it is going, it seems likely that it will end up over 2%, maybe far over 2%.

NJ

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