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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 1/1
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Daily Quiz 1/1 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Monday, 2 January 2012, at 10:17 p.m.
1. 13/6 is clear at a normal score. At GG we could consider running since the downside of getting attacked is diminished. Still, with the race being close, I don't think that running gains that much. 13/6.
2. GG again. Suppose we hit. Then we're hit back 11/36 times and will lose almost all of those games. If White dances, then 54 and 44 fail to clean up the blot and 53 and 43 leave an indirect shot from the bar; otherwise, we'll win almost all the time. So let's say we win 2/3 of the time if we hit. How about gammons? We'll win a few but I think it will be less than 10%, probably closer to 5%. If we don't hit and play 6/5 6/1 instead, then we have 14 rolls that leave a direct shot next time (65 64 63 53 52 51 42). Only 7 rolls clear our outside point safely, and otherwise the race will still be fairly close because of our wasted pips. I have trouble calculating our wins after 6/5 6/1 and it is likely sensitive to the location of White's outfield checker. Not at all sure but I'll try the hit. 9/3*.
3. The cube isn't turned yet but I'd still think in terms of trying to win a gammon because we will be eager to turn the cube as soon as things go our way. The candidates seem to be 13/10 13/9 and 8/1*. They leave about the same number of shots. 13/10 13/9 is better for making home-board points (always important at GG), though it has the disadvantage that White's hits also escape. Again I'm not sure but I'll try 13/10 13/9.
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