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Best Play Not on XG's Radar, #18

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Saturday, 11 February 2012, at 2:59 p.m.

The same diagram appears twice below. After the first, you can see that when XG analyzed my match, the best play was not among the top fifteen. In fact, it was #18. After the second, you can see the rollout result.





White is Michel1

score: 3
pip: 72
5 point match
pip: 120
score: 1

Blue is peever
XGID=---bBBBBBBA-A-------Aaebe-:1:-1:1:21:1:3:0:5:10
Blue to play 21

1.XG Roller+8/7 8/6eq: +1.057
Player:
Opponent:
79.16% (G:23.67% B:0.80%)
20.84% (G:3.36% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller+10/7eq: +1.050 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
79.89% (G:22.63% B:0.70%)
20.11% (G:2.31% B:0.01%)
3.4-ply20/19 10/8eq: +1.031 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:
80.23% (G:21.30% B:0.63%)
19.77% (G:2.63% B:0.01%)
4.4-ply20/19 8/6eq: +0.992 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
78.36% (G:21.24% B:0.81%)
21.64% (G:4.45% B:0.03%)
5.4-ply12/11 8/6eq: +0.981 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:
77.97% (G:21.06% B:0.89%)
22.03% (G:4.36% B:0.03%)
6.3-ply20/18 10/9eq: +0.971 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:
76.21% (G:22.35% B:0.42%)
23.79% (G:2.24% B:0.00%)
7.3-ply12/9eq: +0.958 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
76.28% (G:21.64% B:0.38%)
23.72% (G:1.80% B:0.00%)
8.3-ply20/17eq: +0.956 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:
75.94% (G:21.88% B:0.38%)
24.06% (G:2.58% B:0.00%)
9.3-ply20/19 7/5eq: +0.928 (-0.128)
Player:
Opponent:
75.12% (G:21.30% B:0.54%)
24.88% (G:5.25% B:0.02%)
10.2-ply9/8 9/7eq: +0.987 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
78.92% (G:20.43% B:0.73%)
21.08% (G:2.25% B:0.01%)
11.2-ply20/18 12/11eq: +0.987 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
79.77% (G:19.56% B:0.11%)
20.23% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
12.2-ply12/11 10/8eq: +0.981 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
79.95% (G:19.11% B:0.24%)
20.05% (G:0.38% B:0.00%)
13.2-ply20/19 9/7eq: +0.959 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:
78.37% (G:19.60% B:0.64%)
21.63% (G:4.87% B:0.04%)
14.2-ply9/6eq: +0.956 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
78.06% (G:19.74% B:0.77%)
21.94% (G:4.62% B:0.04%)
15.2-ply12/11 9/7eq: +0.943 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
78.01% (G:19.16% B:0.74%)
21.99% (G:4.71% B:0.04%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2





White is Michel1

score: 3
pip: 72
5 point match
pip: 120
score: 1

Blue is peever
XGID=---bBBBBBBA-A-------Aaebe-:1:-1:1:21:1:3:0:5:10
Blue to play 21

1.Rollout17/6 7/5eq: +1.150
Player:
Opponent:
80.61% (G:26.91% B:1.42%)
19.39% (G:5.16% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+1.144...+1.157) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 13 seconds
2.Rollout112/11 10/8eq: +1.114 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
80.98% (G:24.73% B:1.02%)
19.02% (G:3.90% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.108...+1.120) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds
3.Rollout18/7 8/6eq: +1.104 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
79.78% (G:25.45% B:1.38%)
20.22% (G:3.94% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.098...+1.110) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds
4.Rollout120/18 12/11eq: +1.103 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
80.31% (G:24.82% B:1.07%)
19.69% (G:3.88% B:0.00%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.097...+1.109) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds
5.Rollout110/8 7/6eq: +1.088 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
79.16% (G:25.25% B:1.20%)
20.84% (G:6.09% B:0.01%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.082...+1.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

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