Position 1A. This was the score at which the position arose: Black needs 6, White needs 1, post Crawford. Incidentally, White made the best play with his third roll 21 at this score.
Over the board, I played my 61 quickly. I saw White's 9pt builder and played 13/7 to duplicate 4s. Then I quickly played 24/23. Soon after I picked up my dice, I wished I had taken the time to consider 6/5.
I am posting the rollout results of this position at five scores. Notice that the two best very different plays are tied at money, DMP and GS. I am posting the rollout result of the variation at only one score: money.
         
 
        
 | | White is shimohei
score: 8
pip: 159 | | 9 point match | pip: 161
score: 3
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=---bB-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:1:-1:1:61:3:8:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 6/5 | eq: +0.200 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.41% (G:13.80% B:0.39%)
48.59% (G:16.62% B:2.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.189...+0.210) - [99.4%]
Duration: 7 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/7 | eq: +0.182 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.26% (G:12.49% B:0.40%)
48.74% (G:15.92% B:1.83%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.173...+0.191) - [0.6%]
Duration: 7 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/18 6/5 | eq: +0.168 (-0.031) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.48% (G:12.19% B:0.57%)
49.52% (G:18.57% B:2.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.158...+0.178) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 11 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/18 | eq: +0.146 (-0.054) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.42% (G:11.02% B:0.34%)
49.58% (G:16.15% B:1.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.137...+0.154) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| |
1 589 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 1B. (Money)
| | White is shimohei
score: 0
pip: 159 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=---bB-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/7 | eq: -0.007 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.37% (G:12.80% B:0.53%)
49.63% (G:14.27% B:0.59%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.009...-0.004) - [68.9%]
Duration: 8 hours 20 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 6/5 | eq: -0.008 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.17% (G:14.17% B:0.64%)
49.83% (G:14.80% B:0.94%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.010...-0.005) - [31.1%]
Duration: 9 hours 09 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 24/23 24/18 | eq: -0.026 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.97% (G:11.29% B:0.47%)
50.03% (G:13.94% B:0.48%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.033...-0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 24/18 6/5 | eq: -0.043 (-0.036) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.82% (G:12.18% B:0.53%)
50.18% (G:15.63% B:0.70%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.051...-0.035) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes |
|
| |
1 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
Position 1C. (DMP)
| | White is shimohei
score: 0
pip: 159 | | 1 point match | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=---bB-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 6/5 | eq: +0.005 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.26% (G:16.11% B:2.14%)
49.74% (G:17.39% B:3.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.003...+0.007) - [69.9%]
Duration: 4 hours 17 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/7 | eq: +0.004 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.22% (G:15.65% B:1.73%)
49.78% (G:15.58% B:1.79%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.002...+0.006) - [30.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 56 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/18 | eq: -0.001 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.94% (G:13.33% B:1.41%)
50.06% (G:15.13% B:1.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.003...+0.001) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 58 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/18 6/5 | eq: -0.001 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.93% (G:14.08% B:1.68%)
50.07% (G:18.08% B:2.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.004...+0.001) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 23 minutes |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 1D. (Gammon Save)
| | White is shimohei
score: 0
pip: 159 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 161
score: 1
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=---bB-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:61:1:0:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/7 | eq: -0.289 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.99% (G:16.07% B:1.76%)
50.01% (G:14.46% B:1.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.292...-0.287) - [88.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/7 6/5 | eq: -0.292 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.42% (G:15.93% B:2.16%)
50.58% (G:14.00% B:2.39%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.294...-0.289) - [12.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 40 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/18 | eq: -0.296 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.97% (G:13.99% B:1.42%)
50.03% (G:14.80% B:0.96%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.299...-0.294) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 24/18 6/5 | eq: -0.321 (-0.032) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.33% (G:14.49% B:1.96%)
50.67% (G:15.38% B:1.39%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.326...-0.316) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 1E. (Gammon Go)
| | White is shimohei
score: 1
pip: 159 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=---bB-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 6/5 | eq: +0.292 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.08% (G:13.51% B:1.43%)
48.92% (G:16.74% B:2.63%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.286...+0.297) - [100.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/7 | eq: +0.264 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.17% (G:12.02% B:1.07%)
48.83% (G:16.08% B:1.68%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.259...+0.269) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 24/18 6/5 | eq: +0.225 (-0.067) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.85% (G:11.40% B:0.43%)
50.15% (G:15.35% B:0.73%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 24/23 24/18 | eq: +0.210 (-0.082) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.37% (G:10.12% B:0.32%)
49.63% (G:12.97% B:0.48%) | |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Position 2. In this variation of Position 1, White has one more checker on the 8pt and one fewer on the midpoint. Although I am presenting the rollout result for money only, the reader has enough info to conclude how 61 should be played at other scores in this position.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 154 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---bB-D-B---cE--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:16:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 16 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/7 6/5 | eq: -0.040 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.60% (G:13.71% B:0.57%)
50.40% (G:15.48% B:1.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.055...-0.025) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 13/7 | eq: -0.080 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.71% (G:12.39% B:0.52%)
51.29% (G:15.70% B:0.69%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.094...-0.065) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 53 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/18 6/5 | eq: -0.094 (-0.054) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.94% (G:11.86% B:0.49%)
51.06% (G:17.36% B:0.75%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.111...-0.076) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/23 24/18 | eq: -0.108 (-0.068) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.38% (G:10.57% B:0.47%)
51.62% (G:15.87% B:0.51%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.121...-0.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03