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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 5 April 2012, at 7:55 p.m.

In Response To: Tough and Tricky Fourth Roll 61 (Paul Weaver)

Position 1A. This was the score at which the position arose: Black needs 6, White needs 1, post Crawford. Incidentally, White made the best play with his third roll 21 at this score.

Over the board, I played my 61 quickly. I saw White's 9pt builder and played 13/7 to duplicate 4s. Then I quickly played 24/23. Soon after I picked up my dice, I wished I had taken the time to consider 6/5.

I am posting the rollout results of this position at five scores. Notice that the two best very different plays are tied at money, DMP and GS. I am posting the rollout result of the variation at only one score: money.





White is shimohei

score: 8
pip: 159
9 point match
pip: 161
score: 3

Blue is peever
XGID=---bB-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:1:-1:1:61:3:8:0:9:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 6/5eq: +0.200
Player:
Opponent:
51.41% (G:13.80% B:0.39%)
48.59% (G:16.62% B:2.45%)
Conf.: 0.011 (+0.189...+0.210) - [99.4%]
Duration: 7 minutes 44 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 13/7eq: +0.182 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
51.26% (G:12.49% B:0.40%)
48.74% (G:15.92% B:1.83%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.173...+0.191) - [0.6%]
Duration: 7 minutes 15 seconds
3.Rollout124/18 6/5eq: +0.168 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
50.48% (G:12.19% B:0.57%)
49.52% (G:18.57% B:2.40%)
Conf.: 0.010 (+0.158...+0.178) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 11 seconds
4.Rollout124/23 24/18eq: +0.146 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
50.42% (G:11.02% B:0.34%)
49.58% (G:16.15% B:1.38%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.137...+0.154) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 37 seconds
1 589 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 1B. (Money)





White is shimohei

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=---bB-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout124/23 13/7eq: -0.007
Player:
Opponent:
50.37% (G:12.80% B:0.53%)
49.63% (G:14.27% B:0.59%)
Conf.: 0.003 (-0.009...-0.004) - [68.9%]
Duration: 8 hours 20 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 6/5eq: -0.008 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
50.17% (G:14.17% B:0.64%)
49.83% (G:14.80% B:0.94%)
Conf.: 0.003 (-0.010...-0.005) - [31.1%]
Duration: 9 hours 09 minutes
3.Rollout224/23 24/18eq: -0.026 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
49.97% (G:11.29% B:0.47%)
50.03% (G:13.94% B:0.48%)
Conf.: 0.007 (-0.033...-0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 12 minutes
4.Rollout224/18 6/5eq: -0.043 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:
49.82% (G:12.18% B:0.53%)
50.18% (G:15.63% B:0.70%)
Conf.: 0.008 (-0.051...-0.035) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
1 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Position 1C. (DMP)





White is shimohei

score: 0
pip: 159
1 point match
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=---bB-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 6/5eq: +0.005
Player:
Opponent:
50.26% (G:16.11% B:2.14%)
49.74% (G:17.39% B:3.01%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.003...+0.007) - [69.9%]
Duration: 4 hours 17 minutes
2.Rollout124/23 13/7eq: +0.004 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
50.22% (G:15.65% B:1.73%)
49.78% (G:15.58% B:1.79%)
Conf.: 0.002 (+0.002...+0.006) - [30.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 56 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 24/18eq: -0.001 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
49.94% (G:13.33% B:1.41%)
50.06% (G:15.13% B:1.30%)
Conf.: 0.002 (-0.003...+0.001) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 58 minutes
4.Rollout124/18 6/5eq: -0.001 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
49.93% (G:14.08% B:1.68%)
50.07% (G:18.08% B:2.25%)
Conf.: 0.002 (-0.004...+0.001) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 23 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 1D. (Gammon Save)





White is shimohei

score: 0
pip: 159
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 161
score: 1

Blue is peever
XGID=---bB-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:61:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout124/23 13/7eq: -0.289
Player:
Opponent:
49.99% (G:16.07% B:1.76%)
50.01% (G:14.46% B:1.31%)
Conf.: 0.003 (-0.292...-0.287) - [88.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes
2.Rollout113/7 6/5eq: -0.292 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
49.42% (G:15.93% B:2.16%)
50.58% (G:14.00% B:2.39%)
Conf.: 0.003 (-0.294...-0.289) - [12.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 40 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 24/18eq: -0.296 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:
49.97% (G:13.99% B:1.42%)
50.03% (G:14.80% B:0.96%)
Conf.: 0.003 (-0.299...-0.294) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
4.Rollout224/18 6/5eq: -0.321 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
49.33% (G:14.49% B:1.96%)
50.67% (G:15.38% B:1.39%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.326...-0.316) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 06 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 1E. (Gammon Go)





White is shimohei

score: 1
pip: 159
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=---bB-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 6/5eq: +0.292
Player:
Opponent:
51.08% (G:13.51% B:1.43%)
48.92% (G:16.74% B:2.63%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.286...+0.297) - [100.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 13/7eq: +0.264 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:
51.17% (G:12.02% B:1.07%)
48.83% (G:16.08% B:1.68%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.259...+0.269) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 49 seconds
3.XG Roller++24/18 6/5eq: +0.225 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
49.85% (G:11.40% B:0.43%)
50.15% (G:15.35% B:0.73%)
4.XG Roller++24/23 24/18eq: +0.210 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:
50.37% (G:10.12% B:0.32%)
49.63% (G:12.97% B:0.48%)
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 2. In this variation of Position 1, White has one more checker on the 8pt and one fewer on the midpoint. Although I am presenting the rollout result for money only, the reader has enough info to conclude how 61 should be played at other scores in this position.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 154
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bB-D-B---cE--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:16:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 16

1.Rollout113/7 6/5eq: -0.040
Player:
Opponent:
49.60% (G:13.71% B:0.57%)
50.40% (G:15.48% B:1.04%)
Conf.: 0.015 (-0.055...-0.025) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 13/7eq: -0.080 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:
48.71% (G:12.39% B:0.52%)
51.29% (G:15.70% B:0.69%)
Conf.: 0.015 (-0.094...-0.065) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 53 seconds
3.Rollout124/18 6/5eq: -0.094 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
48.94% (G:11.86% B:0.49%)
51.06% (G:17.36% B:0.75%)
Conf.: 0.018 (-0.111...-0.076) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 46 seconds
4.Rollout124/23 24/18eq: -0.108 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
48.38% (G:10.57% B:0.47%)
51.62% (G:15.87% B:0.51%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.121...-0.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 42 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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