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Daily Quiz 4/19: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 5:56 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/19 (Daily Quiz)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 63
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--aCBBBB--------AA-c-Bdcd-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 74.53% (G: 9.51% B: 0.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.47% (G: 7.80% B: 0.07%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.491
Double:+0.990
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.738 (-0.107)
Double/Take:+0.846
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.154)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21


By the way, if this position were to arise in a consulting chouette, and I were trying to convince the captain to play 6/1*, I would probably say, "Attack a single checker." Though this statement does not quite reflect my own thought process, it's not a lie either, and I think for many players it's more convincing to cite a maxim than to point out how well White's rolls play if we don't fight for a tempo.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 141
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BBC-B---bE--acce----A-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.XG Roller+6/1* eq: +0.197
Player:
Opponent:
55.00% (G:16.49% B:0.47%)
45.00% (G:11.24% B:0.46%)
2.XG Roller+24/23 13/9eq: +0.126 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
53.61% (G:13.77% B:0.47%)
46.39% (G:10.93% B:0.34%)
3.XG Roller+13/8eq: +0.119 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
53.26% (G:13.36% B:0.43%)
46.74% (G:10.28% B:0.32%)
4.XG Roller+13/9 6/5eq: +0.110 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
52.98% (G:13.60% B:0.47%)
47.02% (G:10.79% B:0.35%)
5.XG Roller+24/20 6/5eq: +0.072 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
52.70% (G:10.52% B:0.36%)
47.30% (G:11.31% B:0.32%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21


I'm surprised at the size of the equity difference between 24/15 and 24/20 21/16. It's about twice as big as I would have predicted.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 124
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-a---BDBB---bB---cbe-Ab-B-:0:0:1:45:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 45

1.XG Roller+24/15eq: -0.162
Player:
Opponent:
49.23% (G:11.15% B:0.51%)
50.77% (G:23.21% B:1.12%)
2.XG Roller+21/16 13/9eq: -0.260 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:
47.45% (G:10.01% B:0.41%)
52.55% (G:21.84% B:2.35%)
3.XG Roller+24/20 21/16eq: -0.306 (-0.144)
Player:
Opponent:
45.66% (G:10.73% B:0.53%)
54.34% (G:24.60% B:1.24%)
4.XG Roller+13/9 13/8eq: -0.333 (-0.171)
Player:
Opponent:
44.16% (G:9.59% B:0.44%)
55.84% (G:19.77% B:1.69%)
5.XG Roller+24/20 6/1* eq: -0.342 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:
42.82% (G:10.47% B:0.36%)
57.18% (G:19.74% B:1.12%)
6.XG Roller+21/16 6/2eq: -0.351 (-0.189)
Player:
Opponent:
44.41% (G:9.77% B:0.41%)
55.59% (G:21.55% B:2.32%)
7.XG Roller+24/20 13/8eq: -0.360 (-0.198)
Player:
Opponent:
43.14% (G:10.03% B:0.47%)
56.86% (G:24.12% B:1.88%)
8.XG Roller+13/4eq: -0.416 (-0.254)
Player:
Opponent:
43.55% (G:9.30% B:0.42%)
56.45% (G:24.79% B:2.93%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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