BGonline.org Forums

keeping the cube away ? or not

Posted By: Martin Sterel
Date: Thursday, 17 May 2012, at 11:21 a.m.

In general one tends to make a move to keep the cube away.

Here there are 3 legal moves where 1 leads to a recube where playing safe 1 turn gives us time to roll big doubles or even small.But XG wants me to pay now knowinh I will get a 4 cube .

Off course all is by a hair, but still.On a less extensive RO on a centered cube it seems not right to pay now.So what is going on?As even if you do roll longer they will stil be close.

Martin

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 85 5 point match pip: 81 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CBCBB-----A--bb--Bda-cba-:1:-1:1:53:2:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	18/10	eq: -0,466
	Player: Opponent: 46,56% (G:5,55% B:0,05%) 53,44% (G:2,91% B:0,08%) Conf.: ± 0,001 (-0,467...-0,465) - [100,0%] Duration: 2 hours 24 minutes
2.	Rollout1	11/3	eq: -0,468 (-0,002)
	Player: Opponent: 47,47% (G:1,35% B:0,01%) 52,53% (G:1,25% B:0,02%) Conf.: ± 0,001 (-0,469...-0,467) - [0,0%] Duration: 4 hours 06 minutes
3.	Rollout1	18/13 11/8	eq: -0,470 (-0,004)
	Player: Opponent: 46,42% (G:5,34% B:0,05%) 53,58% (G:2,76% B:0,08%) Conf.: ± 0,001 (-0,471...-0,469) - [0,0%] Duration: 1 hour 42 minutes
4.	3-ply	11/6 5/2	eq: -0,516 (-0,050)
	Player: Opponent: 45,94% (G:0,68% B:0,00%) 54,06% (G:1,59% B:0,01%)
5.	2-ply	11/6 4/1	eq: -0,615 (-0,149)
	Player: Opponent: 42,90% (G:0,55% B:0,00%) 57,10% (G:2,12% B:0,02%)
1 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 90254982 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 85 5 point match pip: 81 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CBCBB-----A--bb--Bda-cba-:0:0:1:53:2:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	11/3	eq: -0,046
	Player: Opponent: 47,50% (G:1,52% B:0,02%) 52,50% (G:1,35% B:0,02%) Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,053...-0,040) - [100,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 38 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/10	eq: -0,073 (-0,027)
	Player: Opponent: 46,49% (G:6,45% B:0,16%) 53,51% (G:2,93% B:0,05%) Conf.: ± 0,005 (-0,078...-0,068) - [0,0%] Duration: 2 minutes 08 seconds
3.	XG Roller	18/13 11/8	eq: -0,095 (-0,049)
	Player: Opponent: 45,94% (G:6,07% B:0,11%) 54,06% (G:2,99% B:0,06%)
4.	3-ply	11/6 5/2	eq: -0,131 (-0,085)
	Player: Opponent: 46,15% (G:0,76% B:0,00%) 53,85% (G:2,07% B:0,04%)
5.	3-ply	11/6 4/1	eq: -0,185 (-0,139)
	Player: Opponent: 44,21% (G:0,75% B:0,00%) 55,79% (G:2,05% B:0,03%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 32996124 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross