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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 10 October 2006, at 11:29 p.m.

In Response To: 31P-52S-42? (Stick)

The split is correct here whereas the other day making the four was right. The differences between then (3-1, 3-2 [minor split], 4-2) and this position are subtle but real. First of all your opponent doesn't have 3 diversified builders here, he only has two candlesticks to attack you on his five pt. if you split 24/20. On top of that if you play the split you've duplicated his 6-4 to hit and to anchor up on your bar point. If your opponent does toss a 6-4 after you play 13-11 it gives him the chance to make a significant error by hitting. (Snowie 3 ply says hitting is a .147 blunder!) This sort of duplication actually shows up and seems to be of importance more than one would think in the first few moves. Making the four point and having the board is nice but doesn't quite make the cut here.

Money Game
160
163
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/20 13/11 0.197
0.7% 15.4% 55.1% 44.9% 11.4% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.144 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 172580 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 8/4 6/4 0.170 (-0.027)
0.7% 17.5% 53.7% 46.3% 12.1% 0.7%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.127 ±0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 158588 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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