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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 10 October 2006, at 11:47 p.m.

In Response To: NIB #45 (Stick)

I was very surprised everyone played 13/2* here. I honestly hadn't even rolled it out until I read all your replies. It's too loose. It gives your opponent too many 'good numbers' with not enough compensation. Hitting loose is an effort to win a gammon but honestly, as you can see from the rollout, it doesn't even win more gammons. The problem with it is that not only does it give the 11 immediate numbers for your opponent to hit back, but also leaves any 4 as a great number [anchoring up and being a pain in your broken position's ass]. We also don't have near enough men in the zone here to complete the closeout if we do get lucky and find a fan. Two men, that's all we have to cover the blot/continue the attack. The rest are stacked on the midpoint. Trying to bring the position home after 13/2* is too much work.

What surprised me is that two down from the midpoint comes out ahead of the nice looking 13/8 24/18. 13/8 is forced, no matter what play you choose. It starts to unstack the midpoint, it remakes the valuable 8 pt. I chose running 24/18 with the 6 because it duplicates the aces needed to hit and cover the 5 pt. and reconnects your army.

The real question is why is two down from the mid better? It's the gammons it produces. Your opponent is now under pressure to anchor up or hit, and I'd imagine that a decent amount of the gammons come when he hits you on your bar point and fails to cover his own 5 pt. You get into a slugging battle where you're the US and he's Canada and you score some gammons. If somehow your opponent is unable to hit or anchor up you're obviously much happier having two more men in the zone to start your attack. The more I think about it the more that blot on your opponent's 5 pt. seems to be the toy hidden in the bottom of the cracker jack box. That makes it so your opponent desperately needs to not only roll a good number, but a perfecta or your game most likely strengthens next turn.

Money Game
162
136
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 13/7 13/8 0.124
0.7% 25.1% 56.8% 43.2% 10.5% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.282 ±0.009. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 2592 games (equiv. 82184 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 24/18 13/8 0.105 (-0.018)
0.7% 18.2% 58.6% 41.4% 10.0% 0.4%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.256 ±0.008. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 2592 games (equiv. 88634 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R 13/2* 0.053 (-0.071)
0.7% 25.1% 54.0% 46.0% 11.0% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.222 ±0.018. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 653 games (equiv. 21484 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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