I spent some time trying to analyze Miran's backgame position. This wasn't easy because XG version 1.21 doesn't understand the position very well (XGR+ and 4-ply dissented quite a bit as I varied the position). However, the two variants below seem interesting. I don't trust the XG1 truncated rollouts here, but if Miran (or someone else) rolls them out with stronger settings and more candidate plays, then we'll at least have some more relevant data to chew on.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 187 | Money session Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-aaaBbCBCB--bA--ba-c-bA--A:0:0:1:23:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue to play 23 |
1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 6/3* | eq: +0.431 |
| Player: Opponent: | 57.67% (G:23.65% B:1.81%) 42.33% (G:10.39% B:0.58%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.418...+0.444) Duration: 7 minutes 25 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 8/6 | eq: +0.381 (-0.050) |
| Player: Opponent: | 56.53% (G:24.17% B:1.75%) 43.47% (G:10.13% B:0.44%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.368...+0.394) Duration: 6 minutes 46 seconds |
|
3. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 | eq: +0.351 (-0.080) |
| Player: Opponent: | 56.17% (G:22.67% B:1.88%) 43.83% (G:10.61% B:0.50%) | Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.338...+0.364) Duration: 6 minutes 40 seconds |
|
|
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply. 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 187 | Money session Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-aaaBbCBCB--bA-a-b-c-bA--A:0:0:1:23:0:0:3:0:10 |
Blue to play 23 |
1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 | eq: +0.434 |
| Player: Opponent: | 57.65% (G:23.21% B:1.71%) 42.35% (G:9.24% B:0.40%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.422...+0.446) Duration: 7 minutes 14 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 8/6 | eq: +0.423 (-0.012) |
| Player: Opponent: | 57.63% (G:23.84% B:1.70%) 42.37% (G:9.49% B:0.41%) | Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.412...+0.434) Duration: 6 minutes 52 seconds |
|
3. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 6/3* | eq: +0.374 (-0.060) |
| Player: Opponent: | 57.00% (G:22.37% B:1.64%) 43.00% (G:10.55% B:0.54%) | Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.362...+0.386) Duration: 8 minutes 20 seconds |
|
|
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply. 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21