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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 5/7
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/7 (Chuck Bower)
Date: Tuesday, 19 June 2012, at 5:53 p.m.
Gammon Go -- 2*(2) ... The immediate downside are the five enter + hit rolls {16, 12, 11}
Those five hits are hard to recover from, but still seem better than 11, 12 or 14 immediate hits after other plays, and better than some ~14% hits 2-ply plus some board cracking rolls after 18/14 6/1. And 25 fanning numbers is a lot better than 0 or 16. After 7/2 6/2*, I think Blue should hit that outfield blot about 1/4 of the time, which is a lot.
But if that blot was not there, would 7/2* 6/2's extra gammons still offset 5/36 rather deadly hits? I think I'd go weenie, 18/14 6/1.. What would you do?
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