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OLM Th 06/21/12

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 22 June 2012, at 6:07 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Th 06/21/12 (Jason Lee)

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Lowest EPC doesn't necessarily make it correct. In fact, EPC is probably more likely to be wrong in lopsided positions.

Thanks, Jason. You are right on the mark.

Some notes:

  1. The play with lowest EPC is not likely to be wrong in this lopsided position.
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  2. I did not say that minimal EPC guarantees that 5/4 is correct here, although I did imply that it counts for something. In this sort of position, you have got to at least take a look at the “normal,” minimal-epc play.
    –
  3. Timothy Chow makes a similar point to yours in this thread.

    My reply to Tim is relevant here: I get this. EPC gives the average (i.e, “expected”) number of rolls remaining. Depending on the dice, the actual number of rolls might be higher or lower. In some cases, ..., a play that slightly increases the average number of rolls can decrease the number of times when you need more than the average.
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  4. Shameless plug: Have you all seen my tables of Ideal Racing Positions? For any given pip count and number of checkers remaining, they detail the positions with the lowest EPC.

Mike

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