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Peever can't whopper like I can

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 22 June 2012, at 2:21 p.m.

In Response To: Improvement tip: Don't ignore your idiotic plays (Timothy Chow)

By coincidence(?), just after making the above post yesterday, I played the worst match (PR-wise) that I've ever recorded. It was a seven-pointer against XG, lasting four games. My PR's for the four games, according to "world class" analysis, were 4.2, 2.1, 1.0, and 49.7! Overall PR 14.7. Here are the highlights of that fourth game for your amusement.





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 3
pip: 117
7 point match
pip: 147
score: 2

Blue is Timothy Chow
XGID=-----CCaB---cF-a-b-dA-bb--:0:0:-1:00:2:3:0:7:10
White on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 74.92% (G: 23.77% B: 0.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.08% (G: 4.15% B: 0.18%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.767
Double:+1.958
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.912 (-0.088)
Double/Take:+1.594 (+0.594)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

My brain told me, "The race isn't that bad," in effect parsing the position as something like the one below, and I evaluated it as a bare take. (I turn off pip count when playing against XG. If I had actually bothered to count pips, or even estimate the race, I'm sure I would have dropped.)





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 117
7 point match
pip: 135
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----CDaC---cD-a-b-dA-bb--:0:0:-1:00:2:3:0:7:10
White on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 68.57% (G: 17.09% B: 0.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.43% (G: 5.06% B: 0.21%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.544
Double:+1.406
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.732 (-0.268)
Double/Take:+1.012 (+0.012)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
White is eXtremeGammon

score: 3
pip: 98
7 point match
pip: 125
score: 2

Blue is Timothy Chow
XGID=---a-CD-BB--bD----abbbcb--:1:1:1:22:2:3:0:7:10
Blue to play 22

1.XG Roller+13/11(2) 6/4(2)eq: +0.933
Player:
Opponent:		 66.12% (G:4.56% B:0.10%)
33.88% (G:5.43% B:0.07%)
2.XG Roller+9/3* 5/3eq: +0.323 (-0.609)
Player:
Opponent:		 52.61% (G:4.60% B:0.09%)
47.39% (G:10.30% B:0.11%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

An especially egregious example of my undervaluing priming versus attacking.





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 3
pip: 81
7 point match
pip: 81
score: 2

Blue is Timothy Chow
XGID=-ABBaBD-BaB--------bbbbcb-:1:1:1:54:2:3:0:7:10
Blue to play 54

1.XG Roller+6/2 6/1eq: +0.902
Player:
Opponent:		 70.43% (G:1.59% B:0.02%)
29.57% (G:0.39% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller+8/4* 6/1eq: +0.438 (-0.464)
Player:
Opponent:		 65.55% (G:18.71% B:0.40%)
34.45% (G:13.05% B:0.15%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

The opposite error from the first position: I counted pips, noted my blot, and convinced myself to hold the cube. This is a massive redouble even for money. And then I played the checkers as if my opponent had the cube.

By the way, XG then proceeded to hit both of my blots and win a gammon. The punishment fit the crime.

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