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Daily Quiz 5/12

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 26 June 2012, at 5:26 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 5/12 (Daily Quiz)

Choices:

(1) Cover the 5 point with 8/5 and look for an ace. No reason to play 24/23. 11/10 adds a builder for the 4 point, but 6/5 does that, with less risk. Verdict: 8/5 6/5.

(2) Cover the 5 point with 6/5 and look for a three. No reason to play 24/21. 13/10 fails for the same reason 8/5 6/5 is better than 8/5 11/10. 11/8? Well, I'm not sure what good the blot is doing on the 11 point, since Blue can run with 64 24/14 and point with 42 8/4* 6/4, and White has few if any numbers that will run to the 16 or 15 point. But even if the blot is doing nothing goo, weigh the advantage of another builder after 6/5 8/5, against 6/36*27/36 = 12.5% chance that White will hit on the 14 point and not be hit back. I think 6/5 8/5 is better.

(3) Don't cover the 5 point. Again, no reason to advance 24/23 or 24/21. If 11/8, surely 5/4*. But 13/10 5/4* should be better, if for no other reason that at the cost of 2/36 more hits (5-6) and one double hitter (4-6), 36/36 numbers cover the 4 point instead of 26/36. Which leaves 13/10 11/10. 11 return hits instead of 17, but the five point is not made. Sixes are blocked, but 5-1 4-2 3-3 6-2 6-3 and 6-4 point, 6-1 hits, and 6-5 runs. Seems to me that after 13/11 13/10 most of White's numbers play well -- all 1's and 2-4 2-5 2-6 3-3 3-4 3-5 3-6 4-4 4-6 5-5 5-6 -- but after 13/10 5/4* although 6 more numbers hit, many of White's numbers don't play well or at least worse than after 13/10 11/10 -- 1-1 2-1 5-1 6-1 4-2 5-2 6-2 3-3 3-5 3-6 6-6. On balance 13/10 5/4* looks better to me.

So, my choice comes down to 8/5 6/5 or 13/10 5/4*. After 8/5 6/5 about 24/36 of White's numbers play constructively, but only 6 numbers hit and Blue has the 5 point and 3 builders. After 13/10 5/4*, 17/36 numbers hit but nearly all the others don't play well or worse than after 8/5 6/5. I'm not sure what to make of that balance, and with no boards made yet, if White hits it's still anybody's game. But I'd play 8/5 6/5 for the point, the lesser chance of being on the bar, slightly better offensive chances, and the option of running with 6-4 and 6-5 without worrying about a home board blot.

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