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ROLLOUT

Posted By: smcrtorchs
Date: Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 11:55 p.m.

In Response To: ROLLOUT (Mr Majestyk)

When I first saw the position, my question was what should be the pip count difference for 13/8 to be correct. I did not really consider 16/11 as an alternative and I thought 13/9 6/5 would come more ahead in the rollout. Now that I check the position more closely, I observe that white would really like to make blue's 9 point. If white hits there, not only he will start this point, but blue will have no spares at his outfield to play with. Also now 16/11 makes sense, but to answer your question, someone should examine also how white's checkers would be positioned when you reduce the pip count difference. Also a bigger rollout would help here.

If we take white's spare from the 21 point and 1 spare from white's 13 and we use them to make white's 1 point, then the pip count would be 165 135. In that case I believe 13/8 would come out best. Waiting for white to break his back anchors and preparing for an attack, would seem the best plan so blue would not like to leave a blot.

If we put the same 2 spares on white's six points then the pip count difference will be 40 pips. White will have a much better attacking position and more pips to play before he breaks his back anchors. Therefore 13/8 would be weaker as blue would have to leave the 16 point anchor soon. 13/9 6/5 would be weaker as well. White would not be able to hit without breaking an anchor, but now he would love even more the chance to advance his back checkers and make white's 16 point. 16/11 would be my play in this case.

I did not expect that the changes I described above would leave exactly a 30 and 40 pip count difference respectively. Since these numbers coincide with the numbers you ask, I am going to assume that the position with 60 pip count difference comes from moving the 2 white checkers from the 8 point to the 7 point. OTB I would have played 13/9 6/5, but I guess that if 13/8 and 13/9 6/5 are that close, it would make more sense to play 13/8. The sequences where blue fails to hop the prime in his next 2 rolls should be more now and they will not be good for blue. These should be enough to tip the scales.

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