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Rollout: The kind of position JOH likes to post

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 3 December 2012, at 12:07 a.m.

In Response To: The kind of position JOH likes to post (Timothy Chow)

Other than White possibly forgetting to autorecube, it's hard for anyone to throw away too much equity in this position, so Blue should have close to 87% winning chances here if he redoubles, regardless of skill.

One thing not mentioned by anyone is, if you're Blue, how well do you trust yourself to correctly redouble later on if you don't redouble now?

Rollout stopped at 722 games for no good reason.





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 0
pip: 63
7 point match
pip: 54
score: 4

Blue is Timothy Chow
XGID=-ADD-CC------a-aa---bbbbd-:1:1:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 86.84% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 13.16% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 86.88% (G: 0.03% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 13.12% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.737
Redouble:+1.210
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.842
Redouble/Take:+0.704 (-0.138)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.158)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
722 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.002 (+0.840...+0.844)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.001 (+0.703...+0.705)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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