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Can somebody help?

Posted By: poseidon
Date: Monday, 31 December 2012, at 10:45 a.m.

Blue is 4-away 3-away with a cube on 2 and of course should double now with 13 hitters.

My question is about cubeful equity of blue after he redoubles and makes this a DMP game. Given his 41,4% chances, how can his cubeful equity be +0,104?

I missing something here...

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 2, player 1 (match to 5 points)

Move number 4: player on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	55
player	95
Position ID: uzsnAABt2wYAAw Match ID: UQmgACAACAAA

• player doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		-0.148	(Money: -0.176)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.104
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.896
3.	No double	-0.088	-0.192
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player player owns 2-cube 0.398 0.033 0.004 - 0.602 0.010 0.000 -0.148 -0.088 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.003 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.414 0.049 0.002 - 0.586 0.067 0.000 +0.104 +0.104 Standard error 0.001 0.005 0.001 - 0.001 0.006 0.000 0.003 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, rollout as initial position, Mersenne Twister dice generator with seed 700616908
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Can somebody help?
  poseidon -- Monday, 31 December 2012, at 10:45 a.m.
  • Can somebody help?
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 31 December 2012, at 12:21 p.m.
    • Can somebody help?
      poseidon -- Monday, 31 December 2012, at 12:35 p.m.
      • Can somebody help?
        Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 31 December 2012, at 12:55 p.m.
        • Can somebody help?
          poseidon -- Monday, 31 December 2012, at 2:12 p.m.
          • Can somebody help?
            Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 31 December 2012, at 2:26 p.m.