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RO

Posted By: higonefive
Date: Saturday, 5 January 2013, at 8:13 a.m.

In Response To: Luckily i read the last post from Mr. Majestik... (higonefive)

Having problems to guess the gammon rates, i was glad to remember Stick's 'gammons going through the roof'. My Opp took, insisting immediatley, that this was no double. I thought, that this was even a right technical double. XG said, that we need 9,2% wrong passes, to justify a double. And that is not so unlikely, that 1 out of 10 would pass this. I think, that is one of the reasons for Stick, to ship it. OtB i thought also, even if this is not a double, give him the chance to make a mistake.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 160
7 point match
pip: 142
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bB---BD-C---dA---c-db-AAA-:0:0:1:00:4:3:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65,36% (G:45,51% B:0,76%) 65,21% (G:45,21% B:0,81%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34,64% (G:9,51% B:0,79%) 34,79% (G:8,88% B:1,12%)
Cubeless Equities +0,983 +1,594
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,8110,006 (+0,805..+0,817)
Double/Take:+0,790 (-0,021)0,010 (+0,780..+0,800)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,189)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9,2%
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 7 hours 08 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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