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Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.

Posted By: Carlo Melzi
Date: Thursday, 10 January 2013, at 4:06 p.m.

In Response To: Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc. (AdamStocks)

Something like this? According to XG, a pure 7roll vs 6roll is a marginal ND/B/Drop; a pure 8roll vs 7roll is a ND/B/Take.

How do you figure that out, btw?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 12
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 13
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-M----------------------l-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 36,08% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 36,08% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 63,92% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 63,92% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities -0,278 -0,557
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0,4080,003 (-0,411..-0,406)
Double/Beaver:-2,000 (-1,592)0,005 (-2,005..-1,995)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+1,408)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 34,7%
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60593785
Moves: 1-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 11,0 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 13
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 15
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-O----------------------m-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 37,13% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 37,13% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 62,87% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 62,87% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities -0,257 -0,515
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0,3540,003 (-0,356..-0,351)
Double/Beaver:-1,857 (-1,504)0,005 (-1,863..-1,852)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+1,354)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 34,5%
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 60593785
Moves: 1-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 12,8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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