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Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.

Posted By: Carlo Melzi
Date: Thursday, 10 January 2013, at 4:06 p.m.

In Response To: Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc. (AdamStocks)

Something like this? According to XG, a pure 7roll vs 6roll is a marginal ND/B/Drop; a pure 8roll vs 7roll is a ND/B/Take.

How do you figure that out, btw?

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 12 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 13 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-M----------------------l-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	36,08% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)	36,08% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	63,92% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)	63,92% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities	-0,278	-0,557
Cubeful Equities
No double:	-0,408	±0,003 (-0,411..-0,406)
Double/Beaver:	-2,000 (-1,592)	±0,005 (-2,005..-1,995)
Double/Pass:	+1,000 (+1,408)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 34,7%
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60593785 Moves: 1-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 11,0 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 13 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 15 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-O----------------------m-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	37,13% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)	37,13% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	62,87% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)	62,87% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
Cubeless Equities	-0,257	-0,515
Cubeful Equities
No double:	-0,354	±0,003 (-0,356..-0,351)
Double/Beaver:	-1,857 (-1,504)	±0,005 (-1,863..-1,852)
Double/Pass:	+1,000 (+1,354)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 34,5%
Rollout details
20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60593785 Moves: 1-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 12,8 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Messages In This Thread

• Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
  Jakob Garal -- Wednesday, 9 January 2013, at 11:08 p.m.
  • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 10 January 2013, at 1:30 a.m.
    • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
      Seth -- Thursday, 10 January 2013, at 3:28 a.m.
    • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
      Stein Kulseth -- Thursday, 10 January 2013, at 8:10 a.m.
      • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
        Carlo Melzi -- Thursday, 10 January 2013, at 8:52 a.m.
        • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
          Jakob Garal -- Thursday, 10 January 2013, at 12:27 p.m.
        • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
          AdamStocks -- Thursday, 10 January 2013, at 2:46 p.m.
          • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
            Carlo Melzi -- Thursday, 10 January 2013, at 4:06 p.m.
            • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
              AdamStocks -- Thursday, 10 January 2013, at 6:26 p.m.
              • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
                Joe Russell -- Saturday, 12 January 2013, at 1:34 p.m.
                • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
                  Chris Yep -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 3:11 p.m.
    • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
      TarHeelFan -- Friday, 11 January 2013, at 11:37 p.m.
      • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
        winfox -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 3:29 a.m.
        • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
          TarHeelFan -- Sunday, 13 January 2013, at 5:33 a.m.
  • Double, Beaver, Raccoon etc.
    Stein Kulseth -- Thursday, 10 January 2013, at 8:20 a.m.