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So, what went wrong?

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 20 March 2013, at 3:04 a.m.

In Response To: RO (Igor)

Thanks for posting. Your catch means I won’t be rehearsing a bad play when I reread the excellent Woolsey-Jones book.

Looking for possible explanations of what could go wrong in this era of bots, I came upon this in the Introduction:

Most of the problems come from matches I played on the Internet... I analyzed the matches using Snowie.

So several things are possible, the most probable being that at-score, Kit’s play is best. The two evals below, for instance, have 16/11 on top. Less likely, but possible, are the following:

  • “Analysis” is not the same as “rollout.” I suspect, however, that Tami did rollouts.
  • Unlike XG and GnuBg, Snowie does not play checkers according to score. It’s neural net analyzes for money play, and then Snowie uses formulae to estimate equities for match play. That could be influencing its recommendation here.
The explanation that is most plausible is that Kit and Tami wrote based on a rollout made at a specific match score, and then dropped the match info, publishing the problem as a money position.

Mike

DMP Eval
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 148
1 point match
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-bBCCC-B--b---Bb-cbb-a--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 41
1.XG Roller++16/11eq: +0.4172
Player:
Opponent:		70.86% (G:23.65% B:1.57%)
29.14% (G:5.51% B:0.20%)
2.XG Roller++7/2eq: +0.3967 (-0.0205)
Player:
Opponent:		69.83% (G:23.97% B:1.21%)
30.17% (G:6.60% B:0.25%)
3.XG Roller++6/1* eq: +0.3886 (-0.0286)
Player:
Opponent:		69.43% (G:19.84% B:0.75%)
30.57% (G:6.15% B:0.20%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Eval at 5-away, 7-away
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 148
7 point match
pip: 112
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-bBCCC-B--b---Bb-cbb-a--:0:0:1:41:2:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 41
1.XG Roller++16/11eq: +0.7680
Player:
Opponent:		72.39% (G:17.78% B:1.15%)
27.61% (G:5.03% B:0.17%)
2.XG Roller++7/2eq: +0.7507 (-0.0172)
Player:
Opponent:		70.53% (G:18.65% B:0.78%)
29.47% (G:6.06% B:0.19%)
3.XG Roller++6/1* eq: +0.7017 (-0.0663)
Player:
Opponent:		69.86% (G:17.53% B:0.62%)
30.14% (G:5.94% B:0.18%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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