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standard below average roll - ROLLOUT

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Thursday, 4 April 2013, at 12:32 a.m.

In Response To: standard below average roll - ROLLOUT (Keene)





White is XG Roller+

score: 4
pip: 148
11 point match
pip: 132
score: 4

Blue is Keene
XGID=-a-B--D-Ca--cFb--b-cab----:0:0:1:51:4:4:0:11:10
Blue to play 51

Keene, have you got the original sequence that brought you to this position? I played around with it for a while, but could not come up with a retro-sequence.

I worked on the assumption that there has been little or no hitting. Your opponent may have had one of his back checkers hit before running out to the outfield, but that’s about it.

From there, it looks like you have played either three rolls or four. If three, then you played some combination of 65R, 65R, and 55P. If four, which seems more likely, then, 53P, 65R, 65R, and either 32d or 41D. Probably 41D.

That much seems easy compared to figuring out your opponent’s moves. Assuming that he has not recirculated any checkers, then at some point he moved two checkers off his midpoint. Perhaps he brought them down together with doublets 22, or else one at a time with a couple of 2x rolls. His 4pt was probably made with 22 or 42. The 5pt was probably slotted after you escaped both rear checkers. So, most of his checker locations can be explained plausibly. The thing that has thrown me is trying to find a well-played position that has him running out to his 16pt.

Anyway, if you can help with the sequence, I’ll post your rollout to my rollout database. This is one where I had not seen the earlier posts, so I definitely learned something.

Thanks.

Mike

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