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OTB
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: Cube for match? - Variants (Stick)
Date: Sunday, 7 April 2013, at 2:19 a.m.
OTB my opp said that he didn't want to lose his market when he cubed me here for match and certainly he didn't. I posted the original position since I was surprised that I can win it 21% of the time as I'd expected about 17% OTB. It just seems that I have enough chances to luck out. OK I also posted it to vent a bit about losing to a quadrupal Whopper cube. (Not sure I could eat one of those things...well OK...I guess I could)
Unfortunately I didn't luck out. My opp rolled 43 and hit 6/2x 8/5 (not the best 3 I think) and I danced and in this position he'd only have lost his market by a bit.
White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 5611 point match pip: 94
score: 7
Blue is Player 1XGID=a-ACBCBA-----B-A-----ccbf-:1:1:1:00:7:3:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 87.08% (G:3.35% B:0.08%) 88.45% (G:4.07% B:0.04%) Opponent Winning Chances: 12.92% (G:1.20% B:0.00%) 11.55% (G:2.00% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.763 +1.489 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.897 (-0.103) ±0.002 (+0.895..+0.899) Redouble/Take: +1.079 (+0.079) ±0.008 (+1.071..+1.086) Redouble/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 52.3 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Of course I was soon primed and dead.
It is worthwhile to study these containment situations vs one checker at DMP as I've seen a few big cube errors made at lopsided match scores lately.
The initial position is interesting since my opp often loses his market and shoots past my 12.5% TP but it is still a horrible blunder to cube. It can be difficult to hit a small window.
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