OTB my opp said that he didn't want to lose his market when he cubed me here for match and certainly he didn't. I posted the original position since I was surprised that I can win it 21% of the time as I'd expected about 17% OTB. It just seems that I have enough chances to luck out. OK I also posted it to vent a bit about losing to a quadrupal Whopper cube. (Not sure I could eat one of those things...well OK...I guess I could)
Unfortunately I didn't luck out. My opp rolled 43 and hit 6/2x 8/5 (not the best 3 I think) and I danced and in this position he'd only have lost his market by a bit.
                        |
| ||||
| XGID=a-ACBCBA-----B-A-----ccbf-:1:1:1:00:7:3:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 87.08% (G:3.35% B:0.08%) | 88.45% (G:4.07% B:0.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 12.92% (G:1.20% B:0.00%) | 11.55% (G:2.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.763 | +1.489 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.897 (-0.103) | ±0.002 (+0.895..+0.899) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.079 (+0.079) | ±0.008 (+1.071..+1.086) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 52.3 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Of course I was soon primed and dead.
It is worthwhile to study these containment situations vs one checker at DMP as I've seen a few big cube errors made at lopsided match scores lately.
The initial position is interesting since my opp often loses his market and shoots past my 12.5% TP but it is still a horrible blunder to cube. It can be difficult to hit a small window.