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OTB

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 7 April 2013, at 2:19 a.m.

In Response To: Cube for match? - Variants (Stick)

OTB my opp said that he didn't want to lose his market when he cubed me here for match and certainly he didn't. I posted the original position since I was surprised that I can win it 21% of the time as I'd expected about 17% OTB. It just seems that I have enough chances to luck out. OK I also posted it to vent a bit about losing to a quadrupal Whopper cube. (Not sure I could eat one of those things...well OK...I guess I could)

Unfortunately I didn't luck out. My opp rolled 43 and hit 6/2x 8/5 (not the best 3 I think) and I danced and in this position he'd only have lost his market by a bit.




White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 56
11 point match
pip: 94
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-ACBCBA-----B-A-----ccbf-:1:1:1:00:7:3:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 87.08% (G:3.35% B:0.08%) 88.45% (G:4.07% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 12.92% (G:1.20% B:0.00%) 11.55% (G:2.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.763 +1.489
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.897 (-0.103)±0.002 (+0.895..+0.899)
Redouble/Take:+1.079 (+0.079)±0.008 (+1.071..+1.086)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 52.3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Of course I was soon primed and dead.

It is worthwhile to study these containment situations vs one checker at DMP as I've seen a few big cube errors made at lopsided match scores lately.

The initial position is interesting since my opp often loses his market and shoots past my 12.5% TP but it is still a horrible blunder to cube. It can be difficult to hit a small window.

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