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Cube PR Vs. Checker PR

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Thursday, 2 May 2013, at 2:52 p.m.

I have developed a theory, and I will state up front, that I am not sure it is right, but I believe it is right, and would appreciate input from others.

After discussing this with Kit in particular, and then several other experts, most agree that a cube blunder (.08) is really not as bad a mental error as a checker play blunder. You can make a pretty big cube mistake by making only a small error in your estimates of wins, gammons, or in figuring the TP or GV. Also, you might make a cube error that actually isn't such a bad error against a human who might incorrectly take or pass, and that mitigates much of the error. Or you might make a calculated error based on the relative strength of your opponent. For the most part, that is not the case with checker play errors, so the PR reduction is more of an accurate reflection of the error.

Therefore, if you really want to get an accurate read of how good or bad you played, or how good or bad a player is, it would be more accurate if the cube errors were reduced somewhat. In other words, a .08 cube error would only deduct, say, .05 or .06 from your rating.

Now, even if my basic premise is correct, it would probably have to be a completely arbitrary number to use to reduce the impact of the cube error in comparison to the checker error.

Of course, another problem is that some players are simply far better checker players than others, while some are far stronger with the cube, and that will also skew the results.

But if we take a leap of faith and assume the premise is correct, and we also take a leap of faith and reduce the cube errors by, say, 1/3, do you agree that we would have a more accurate comparison of players' abilities from the PR ratings than we do now?

I believe we would. As a result, I think we would find that the difference in average PR of the top players in the world compared to the average player would be even greater.

It would be interesting if there were a simple way to do this with XG...to put in your own cube-reduction and recalculate the PR for the match.

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