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64R-22N-F-66C-32@-41R-11 — DMP & NMS — Extended Rollouts

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 12 May 2013, at 6:57 p.m.

In Response To: 64R-22N-F-66C-32@-41R-11 — DMP & NMS — Links to 3-ply XG2 Rollouts (Chase)

There is a trend here. The more trials you give this, the closer it gets! With a blot on the 7pt, the opponent will hit with 61, 52, and 43. On the 8pt, he will hit with 62, 53, and 44, but 22 is blocked. For the price of being hit 1 time in 36, Blue gets an extra 2 rolls that make a four-point block when he is missed. Thanks, Chase, for sharing these files. I have added them to my RolloutSummary. I’m sending the extended rollouts back to you. Mike

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Double Match Point

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 130 1 point match pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=------EaC---dE---c-cbbB---:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:1:10 Blue to play 11

1. Rollout1 8/7*(2) 6/5(2) eq: -0.2135 Player: Opponent: 39.33% (G:7.48% B:0.67%) 60.67% (G:20.80% B:1.59%) Conf.: Β±0.0008 (-0.2142...-0.2127) - [66.4%] Duration: 15 hours 38 minutes 2. Rollout1 8/7* 6/5(3) eq: -0.2137 (-0.0002) Player: Opponent: 39.31% (G:7.48% B:0.66%) 60.69% (G:21.52% B:1.81%) Conf.: Β±0.0008 (-0.2145...-0.2130) - [33.6%] Duration: 15 hours 20 minutes 3. Rollout2 8/7* 7/5 6/5 eq: -0.2353 (-0.0218) Player: Opponent: 38.23% (G:7.45% B:0.63%) 61.77% (G:18.97% B:1.58%) Conf.: Β±0.0015 (-0.2368...-0.2339) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 hours 36 minutes   1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 4 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 4 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Original Rollout by Chase 2013-May-08 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10 64R-22N-F-66C-32@-41R-11-d-ch . xgp d[N̥ N1 P21] "<=20*5 Rollout Extended by Taper_Mike 2013-May-11 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 64R-22N-F-66C-32@-41R-11-d-chtm . xgp d[N=N̥ P22] "<=62*15

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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Normal Match Scores

As always, the best approximation to a “normal match score” is an unlimited games rollout with neither Jacoby nor beavers.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 130 Unlimited Game pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=------EaC---dE---c-cbbB---:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 11

1. Rollout1 8/7*(2) 6/5(2) eq: -0.4609 Player: Opponent: 38.06% (G:6.86% B:0.23%) 61.94% (G:12.05% B:0.39%) Conf.: Β±0.0034 (-0.4643...-0.4576) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 hours 54 minutes 2. Rollout1 8/7* 6/5(3) eq: -0.4750 (-0.0141) Player: Opponent: 38.04% (G:6.94% B:0.23%) 61.96% (G:12.78% B:0.44%) Conf.: Β±0.0037 (-0.4787...-0.4713) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 hours 01 minute 3. Rollout1 8/7* 7/5 6/5 eq: -0.4847 (-0.0238) Player: Opponent: 37.19% (G:6.92% B:0.22%) 62.81% (G:11.43% B:0.41%) Conf.: Β±0.0035 (-0.4883...-0.4812) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes   1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 4 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Original Rollout by Chase 2013-May-08 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10 64R-22N-F-66C-32@-41R-11-n-ch . xgp n[N N̥16 P20] "<=5*2 Rollout Extended by Taper_Mike 2013-May-11 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 64R-22N-F-66C-32@-41R-11-n-chtm . xgp n[N N̥14 P24] "<=15

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

64R-22N-F-66C-32@-41R-11 — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	–478.0	[N N̥5 P18] "&e	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	4	–460.9	n[N N̥14 P24] "<=15	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	4	–462.4	n[N N̥16 P20] "<=5*2	Chase

64R-22N-F-66C-32@-41R-11 — Double Match Point

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 2-ply Trunc	682126352	–247.933	d[N N̥4 P21] /0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	4	–213.1	d[N̥ N1 P21] "<=20*5	Chase
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	4	–213.5	d[N=N̥ P22] "<=62*15	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	–241.3	d[N̥ N2 P20] "&e	Taper_Mike

64R-22N-F-66C-32@-41R-11 — Nactation Key

Family	Nactation	Traditional Notation	Note
Near	N	8/7*(2), 6/5(2)	For a roll of doublets, moves in the N (Near) family play 2 dice down (i.e., to a destination in the outer board), and the other 2 dice entirely within the inner board.
Near	N̥	8/7*, 6/5(3)	For a roll of doublets, the OCEAN families place a ring below the Nactation letter when checkers are moved in the ratio 1:3. In this case, N̥ (Near) moves 1 checker down (i.e., to a destination in the outer board), and 3 checkers entirely within the inner board.
Point	P	8/7*/5, 6/5	Plays in the P (Point) family dedicate all parts of a roll to making a single new point.

Explanation of nacbracs

Messages In This Thread

• DMP 11
  Chase -- Wednesday, 8 May 2013, at 3:22 p.m.
  • DMP 11
    Keene -- Wednesday, 8 May 2013, at 5:20 p.m.
  • DMP 11
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 8 May 2013, at 5:37 p.m.
  • DMP 11
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 8 May 2013, at 5:41 p.m.
  • DMP 11
    Stick -- Wednesday, 8 May 2013, at 6:06 p.m.
  • DMP 11
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 8 May 2013, at 6:39 p.m.
  • DMP 11
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 8 May 2013, at 7:09 p.m.
  • DMP 11
    Chase -- Friday, 10 May 2013, at 6:47 a.m.
    • 64R-22N-F-66C-32@-41R-11 — DMP & NMS — Links to 3-ply XG2 Rollouts
      Taper_Mike -- Friday, 10 May 2013, at 8:46 a.m.
      • 64R-22N-F-66C-32@-41R-11 — DMP & NMS — Links to 3-ply XG2 Rollouts
        Chase -- Friday, 10 May 2013, at 9:49 a.m.
        • 64R-22N-F-66C-32@-41R-11 — DMP & NMS — Extended Rollouts
          Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 12 May 2013, at 6:57 p.m.