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31P-54D-64 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 11 June 2013, at 8:48 p.m.

In Response To: 31P 54D 63? (Dmitriy Obukhov)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---BD-B---cE--ad-e----B-:0:0:1:46:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 46
1.Rollout124/18 13/9eq: +0.2690
Player:
Opponent:		56.62% (G:17.19% B:0.94%)
43.38% (G:13.43% B:0.58%)		Conf.: ±0.0023 (+0.2667...+0.2712) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 56 minutes
2.Rollout124/14eq: +0.2612 (-0.0078)
Player:
Opponent:		56.69% (G:15.47% B:0.82%)
43.31% (G:12.37% B:0.45%)		Conf.: ±0.0022 (+0.2591...+0.2634) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 hours 51 minutes
3.Rollout213/9 13/7eq: +0.2077 (-0.0613)
Player:
Opponent:		54.74% (G:18.08% B:0.97%)
45.26% (G:14.17% B:0.98%)		Conf.: ±0.0082 (+0.1995...+0.2159) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 45 seconds
 
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37591028
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37591028
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2012-Dec-04
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
31P-54D-64-tm.xgp
[S R8 D61] "<=62*5

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

31P-54D-64 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply 1057141952 +267.6 [R S3] /10 BgOnline.org
XG 2.03 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 37591028 +269.0 [S R8 D61] "<=62*5 Taper_Mike (above)

Key: D (Down) = 13/9 13/7, R (Run) = 24/14, S (Split) = 24/18 13/9

Explanation of nacbracs

Dmitriy mentions this variant in the preceding post. By the Ballard/Weaver error scale, running is tied with splitting in this 3-ply rollout.

Rollout Tip
Unless you have a specific interest in a given score, it is usually better to make your rollouts for unlimited games. That way the result can be more generally applied at other scores. The best settings for this might be no Jacoby, no beavers, although I continue to use the standard money settings (Jacoby enforced, beavers allowed). For almost a year, I have been considering switching to the former for most of my rollouts.

For these early game positions, a minimum of 5k trials is recommended. As Dmitriy points out, it is useful to know how far back the second-best play is. The shorter rollouts contain too much variance to provide an estimate. That said, I am a big fan of the do-what-you-like ethos that pervades this forum!

Nactation Tip
It is not necessary to put a question mark at the end of a move sequence.

  • Anur’s original subject line: 31P 54D 63?
  • More common equivalent: 31P-54D-63

If you want to include the match score, use a period, followed by the “away score” given from the perspective of the player on roll. In this format, the minus sign in a score is usually entered with an en-dash (Alt+0150). Otherwise, you can just write out the score.

  • 31P-54D-63.–8–7
  • 31P-54D-63 at 8-away, 7-away

Hope this helps.

Mike

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