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53P-41S-43 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 21 June 2013, at 1:09 a.m.

In Response To: 53P-41S-43 money RO (neilkaz)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaB--D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 43
1.Rollout124/21 6/2* eq: +0.0768
Player:
Opponent:		51.37% (G:16.32% B:0.83%)
48.63% (G:13.65% B:0.67%)		Conf.: ±0.0023 (+0.0745...+0.0791) - [54.7%]
Duration: 7 hours 38 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 13/9eq: +0.0766 (-0.0002)
Player:
Opponent:		51.48% (G:16.19% B:0.74%)
48.52% (G:13.79% B:0.64%)		Conf.: ±0.0022 (+0.0744...+0.0788) - [45.3%]
Duration: 6 hours 55 minutes
3.Rollout224/20 13/10eq: +0.0604 (-0.0164)
Player:
Opponent:		51.00% (G:16.54% B:0.88%)
49.00% (G:14.15% B:0.69%)		Conf.: ±0.0032 (+0.0572...+0.0636) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 36 minutes
4.Rollout213/10 13/9eq: +0.0578 (-0.0190)
Player:
Opponent:		50.70% (G:17.26% B:0.81%)
49.30% (G:14.06% B:0.84%)		Conf.: ±0.0032 (+0.0546...+0.0610) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 25 minutes
 
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17308727
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17308727
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013-Jun-20
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
53P-41S-43-tm.xgp
[X=Z S16 D19] "<=62*31
[Z X4 S20 D22] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

53P-41S-43 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Trunc 686299714 +43.578 [Z X9 D17 S20] /0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR [Neil 46k + Mike 62k] +75.8 [Z X1 S16 D19] "<=108*31 [XG2 Aggregate]
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 17308727 +76.8 [X=Z S16 D19] "<=62*31 Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10.192.pre-release 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 78623594 +74.8 [Z X2] "<=46 Neil Kazaross
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] +76.7 [Z X4 S20 D22] "&e Taper_Mike

Key: D (Down) = 13/10 13/9, S (Split) = 24/20 13/10, X (Hit and split) = 24/21 6/2*, Z (Reverse split) = 24/21 13/9

Explanation of nacbracs

Combining Neil’s rollout with mine gives [Z X1] "<=108. Compare this result with the second-roll position 41S-43:
41S-43 [X Z35] "<15 David Rockwell
In the third-roll position, Z has gained 0.036 in relation to X. My working hypothesis is that the tempo hit has fallen back for these reasons:

  1. The 6pt is beginning to be stripped. After the hit, there would be only 1 spare remaining. The checker that would be used to hit might be better employed later in making the 4pt or 5pt.
  1. If the slot on the 2pt survives, covering may be a problem. Absent a roll of 65, covering would mean either stripping the 6pt or breaking the 8pt.
  1. After making a point on the first roll, it is thematic to play down from the midpoint on the third in order to support the stripped 8pt.

I am not sure how to interpret the impact that not hitting has on the opponent’s side of the board. Z gives him six extra POH numbers: 52, 51, and 42. He would have had the doublets 55, 44, and 22 either way. Z also gives him point-making numbers such as 31 that do not POH. These factors should weigh on the side of X.

Mike

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