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A 62 To Play

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 26 June 2013, at 3:38 p.m.

In Response To: A 62 To Play (Neil Robins)

Shouldn't I be playing here on the assumption that I already effectively hold a 2 cube?

This is a much more interesting question than seems at face value. To answer what I believe you are asking it's a simple 'yes'.

Now, in reality, at this score I'm not sure how we got to this point in the game without missing a cube or sixteen from your opponent. If this is true, which I believe it is, then we don't have to work on the assumption that person is going to cube now when it's clearly a cube. If you were playing XG you'd of course know the cube was coming but you're playing a human so sometimes the best move reported by the bot isn't the best move in practice. An obvious example is when someone has failed to double you out turn after turn and you believe it's mainly because you hold on to an anchor and they fail to see how suckfest your position is. Now, you roll a number in which you 'should', according to XG, run off the anchor. If you do that, you're sure your opponent will know to cube you out because he'll see he can also attack. So the right play is sit on that anchor and take your free shakes until hopefully you get lucky and toss big doubles and make your opponent pay for his numerous cube misses.

Second question in response to your question, are you sure it's a take after any play? If you think this play is a pass and that play is a pass and you're pretty certain you have an equal probability of getting doubled out after either than you should make the most bold (usually best) play in the case where you don't get cubed out. The one which will reap you the biggest benefit when your opponent fails to cube.

Lastly, back to your original question and the simple 'yes' answer. Yes, here I would play as if I owned the cube and as I said in my original response there is a huge according to score factor but the right play at dmp is so damn right I can't make the other play. When one play is so so far ahead of another dmp wise it is still a strong argument to make that play regardless of the score.


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