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Rollout

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 30 June 2013, at 1:38 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (John O'Hagan)

I came across this position in a match vs. xgr+. OTB, I estimated the leader's dead cube takepoint to be around 26%, that gammon values favored the trailer by 62% to 33%, and that the trailer's 8-cube takepoint (excepting last roll positions) was 17%. The actual numbers are 27%, 60%, 34%, and 16%.

Does the leader have a take? Sure looks like it. The race is close, some of my numbers don't hit, those that do mostly leave a direct shot, Black wins some g's as well, and he gets some value from owning the cube.

Should I redouble? Looks like a pretty volatile position. 55 is a super joker, 15 more numbers hit and put Black on the roof vs. a 5 or 5.5 point board, and 52 hits outside. That's about 12.5 big mkt losers which should be enough to justify a redouble ATS.

The RO shows this to be both a big redouble and an easy take.

is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 108
11 point match
pip: 104
score: 2

is Player 1
XGID=-ABaBBCB----bB--ab-bc-bAb-:1:1:1:00:2:4:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.93% (G:26.92% B:0.47%) 60.27% (G:27.01% B:0.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.07% (G:11.68% B:0.41%) 39.73% (G:12.04% B:0.89%)
Cubeless Equities +0.383 +0.983
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.574 (-0.265)±0.007 (+0.567..+0.580)
Redouble/Take:+0.839±0.012 (+0.827..+0.851)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.161)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

At 11a-11a, it's good enough for an initial double but not a redouble.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 108
11 point match
pip: 104
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-ABaBBCB----bB--ab-bc-bAb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.25% (G:26.61% B:0.48%) 60.70% (G:26.72% B:0.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.75% (G:11.55% B:0.42%) 39.30% (G:12.22% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities +0.359 +0.736
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.379 (-0.083)±0.009 (+0.370..+0.388)
Double/Take:+0.462±0.013 (+0.449..+0.475)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.538)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 108
11 point match
pip: 104
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-ABaBBCB----bB--ab-bc-bAb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.26% (G:26.94% B:0.51%) 60.65% (G:26.25% B:0.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.74% (G:12.13% B:0.42%) 39.35% (G:11.84% B:0.46%)
Cubeless Equities +0.361 +0.721
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.503±0.006 (+0.496..+0.509)
Redouble/Take:+0.472 (-0.031)±0.012 (+0.460..+0.484)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.497)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 minutes 55 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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