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Rollout

Posted By: Mochy
Date: Saturday, 6 July 2013, at 7:52 a.m.

In Response To: Mochy's blunder 02 (Mochy)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 123
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBa-B-BAD---bB-Abb-bcAb---:1:-1:1:63:0:0:3:0:4
Blue to play 63

1.xgRollout121/15 7/4eq: +0.235
Player:
Opponent:		63.44% (G:17.43% B:0.47%)
36.56% (G:9.45% B:0.38%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.229...+0.241) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 13 seconds
2.Rollout121/18 8/2* eq: +0.102 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:		56.21% (G:31.89% B:0.45%)
43.79% (G:19.30% B:1.83%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.095...+0.109) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes
3.Rollout221/15 13/10eq: +0.098 (-0.137)
Player:
Opponent:		58.95% (G:20.18% B:0.60%)
41.05% (G:14.25% B:0.88%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.090...+0.106) - [0.0%]
Duration: 57 minutes 30 seconds
4.Rollout313/10 8/2* eq: +0.078 (-0.157)
Player:
Opponent:		55.43% (G:34.73% B:0.41%)
44.57% (G:20.53% B:3.76%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.071...+0.084) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes
1 2171 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50973349
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge

2 2172 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50973349
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge

3 2170 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50973349
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

I played 8/2* 21/18 as I wanted to unstack heavy 8 point while putting the second men on the bar. I couldn't escape the backman fully, but 21/18 does some achivement.
Also alternative play (21/15 7/4) looks very ugly and it seems I have to loose hit in the following rolls anyway, so why not now?

However my play was hugely wrong here. What is going on ?
I can come up with two possible errors in my thinking process.

1) Getting hit is more expensive than I thought.
So that the pros (Fan, for example) doesn't outweigh the cons (Getting hit).
Here is the graph that shows the swing of the next rolls.
http://gyazo.com/015f50ddaedfb20656d428ac3c7b15a3

As you see, I gain around 0.5 equity if he fan but lose almost 2.0 if he rolls 52 or 32. (The equity of the non-doublet is doubled to comparing purpose)
So, just 52 and 32 are almost enough to spend up the whole positive swing created by his poor entering.

2) 21/15 7/4 is not as bad as I thought.

Maybe I misevaluated the position after 21/15 7/4. It is 100% safe play for now.
Certainly my position doesn't look cute, but I can hit him or clear the mid or 15p depends on the rolls.

The position below is the variant position. I roll 64 instead of 63, and now two plays are almost tied.
It shows that the right play doesn't belong to the position so you have to think about the pros and cons, then compare with the right measure.
I simply used the wrong measure.




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 123
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBa-B-BAD---bB-Abb-bcAb---:1:-1:1:46:0:0:3:0:4
Blue to play 46

1.xgXG Roller++21/15 8/4eq: +0.182
Player:
Opponent:		61.07% (G:20.99% B:0.42%)
38.93% (G:10.95% B:0.44%)
2.XG Roller++15/11 8/2* eq: +0.173 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		57.10% (G:34.21% B:0.44%)
42.90% (G:15.42% B:1.25%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

I think I start to understand the position. Thank you again for sharing your opinion.

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