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***Rollout*** 64P-63S-41.–6–3
Posted By: smcrtorchs In Response To: ***Rollout*** 64P-63S-41.–6–3 (Dmitriy Obukhov)
Date: Sunday, 7 July 2013, at 8:28 p.m.
Well... I do hope that someone else replies too...
First of all, after blue makes his 2 pt then he is committed to a blitzing game, See Mochy's priming/blitzing slides if you want to refresh this. Starting an advanced anchor is useful at blitzing games for the side that blitzes, but hitting in a blitz is most of the times a higher priority. Moreover here 24/21 24/20 gives too many POH numbers to white and also many P numbers. If white successfully POH on blue then he will have more men in the zone, a better board and better blitzing/priming potential than blue.
6/*1 is a blitzing play and it does takes away many white's rolls that make a point, however it does not fight for a key point and it puts blue to even deeper blitzing waters when this is not necessary and I believe blue would be better to hold his spares for better blitzing points than making the worse possible point with them. Also 52 43 61 become very good rolls for white. Moreover 6/*1 does not unload the heavy 13 point this turn and chances to unload it next turn are smaller than after 24/20 8/7* and finally, 6/1* leaves too few checkers to cover and attack next turn.
Hitting on the 7, starts a better point and minimises the chances of white making the 18. Blue will have only racing as a game plan if white makes the 18. Also white has 4/36 fanning numbers and 10 non hitting numbers which are pretty bad (12,13,14,15,24). When white hits, most likely blue will continue the blitz or make one of the 7-8 points next turn while he brings more ammo for the blitz. From what I remember, having a third man sent back is only a small disadvantage during a blitz if the other side has no board and you have enough men in the zone.
Something that always comes to my mind about making the 2 point is a comment I read at gammon village many months ago. I think it was a reply from a reader at 1 of Stick's article, but I am not 100% sure. The comment said something like this: " Making the 2 point with an opening 64 has won me more games than making the 5 point with an opening 31". From the moment I read it, I wondered if it can be true. A bit later, I discovered that after making the 2 point, the other side can easily make big mistakes if he/she does not try a priming strategy. Is it possible that the errors of an ignorant player are big enough to overcome the advantages of the 5 point? I believe that yes this is true in many cases and of course it depends on the actual opponent. For me, this shows that giving up healthy amounts of equity to make your opponent error can work brilliantly even with checker play strategies.
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