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OLM 2013-07-06

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 8 July 2013, at 1:16 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 2013-07-06 (Jason Lee)

I normally don't vote unless I see what I think to be the majority going astray so here I am. This should be a clear double. Using O'Hagan's Law which states you need about 9 market losing sequences (assuming most/all of your other rolls play okay) to cube let's take a look at what we have.

Our monsters in no particular order: [66 55 44 33 22 11 63 61 42]

Those aren't all necessarily market losers since the opponent has the chance to come in and anchor up immediately about 1/3rd of the time. That's 12 numbers and he'll anchor up 3-4 of those times and still have a take. Right there alone we have our roughly 9 market losers so assuming the rest of the numbers aren't catastrophic I think we should cube.

We have some ugly numbers for sure [64 the worst?] but overall the rest of our numbers see to play decently. Also, when we lose our market we can lose it by a lot. We have a firm grip on the race so that even when we roll nothing to write home about we still have a winning game. The volatility is pretty high so to me this is a must double. Our 1-0 lead should have little to no effect on a centered cube in this position.

Double

Stick

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