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Lowest winning percentage which is too good to redouble

Posted By: Ray Kershaw
Date: Wednesday, 10 July 2013, at 1:35 p.m.

With 60.852% wins, this slightly betters Xavier's earlier position. As Rick Janowski said, the more checkers your opponent has back, the more backgammons you win but also the more games you win since it is harder for your opponent to contain the checkers he hits.

I hope this stimulates someone to get even lower but it's not easy.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 237
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 31
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-FiAAAAA-----------bbb----:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.852% (G:52.404% B:25.130%) 60.489% (G:52.279% B:24.872%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.148% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 39.511% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.9924 +1.9626
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.0310±0.0090 (+1.0220..+1.0400)
Redouble/Take:+1.5641 (+0.5331)±0.0175 (+1.5467..+1.5816)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (-0.0310)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 5.5%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66723790
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 06 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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