Blue is playing GS and has a chance to pick up another blot with 13/12*/7 but GX+ says to play 13/7 without a hit. I know that blue only needs a single win but doesn't two men on the bar make this more likely?
       
 
          
 | | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 126 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 88
score: 1
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=---BBBBBB---aA---bbccbAb-A:0:0:-1:51:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 13/7 | eq: +0.7176 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 86.42% (G:31.03% B:0.42%)
13.58% (G:0.54% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 13/8 5/4 | eq: +0.6875 (-0.0301) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 85.11% (G:27.74% B:0.37%)
14.89% (G:0.74% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 8/3* 3/2 | eq: +0.6790 (-0.0385) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 84.80% (G:49.59% B:0.92%)
15.20% (G:0.85% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 13/12* 12/7 | eq: +0.6432 (-0.0744) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 82.94% (G:47.69% B:1.89%)
17.06% (G:0.78% B:0.01%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 13/8 6/5 | eq: +0.6409 (-0.0767) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 83.05% (G:28.10% B:0.36%)
16.95% (G:1.01% B:0.03%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
This is what I think is going on:
13/7 - If blue doesn't hit and white anchors, white rolls the prime forward while waiting for a shot at blue. Better for blue if she gets hit later.
13/12*/7 - If blue does hit and white anchors, white keeps his dangerous board for longer whilst waiting on the bar. Worse for blue if white hits later.