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BGonline.org Forums
GS - Are more hits better
Posted By: Terrapin
Date: Saturday, 20 July 2013, at 12:32 p.m.
Blue is playing GS and has a chance to pick up another blot with 13/12*/7 but GX+ says to play 13/7 without a hit. I know that blue only needs a single win but doesn't two men on the bar make this more likely?
White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 1262 point match
Crawfordpip: 88
score: 1
Blue is Player 2XGID=---BBBBBB---aA---bbccbAb-A:0:0:-1:51:0:1:1:2:10 Blue to play 51
1. XG Roller+ 13/7 eq: +0.7176
Player:
Opponent:86.42% (G:31.03% B:0.42%)
13.58% (G:0.54% B:0.02%)2. XG Roller+ 13/8 5/4 eq: +0.6875 (-0.0301)
Player:
Opponent:85.11% (G:27.74% B:0.37%)
14.89% (G:0.74% B:0.02%)3. XG Roller+ 8/3* 3/2 eq: +0.6790 (-0.0385)
Player:
Opponent:84.80% (G:49.59% B:0.92%)
15.20% (G:0.85% B:0.02%)4. XG Roller+ 13/12* 12/7 eq: +0.6432 (-0.0744)
Player:
Opponent:82.94% (G:47.69% B:1.89%)
17.06% (G:0.78% B:0.01%)5. XG Roller+ 13/8 6/5 eq: +0.6409 (-0.0767)
Player:
Opponent:83.05% (G:28.10% B:0.36%)
16.95% (G:1.01% B:0.03%)eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
This is what I think is going on:13/7 - If blue doesn't hit and white anchors, white rolls the prime forward while waiting for a shot at blue. Better for blue if she gets hit later.
13/12*/7 - If blue does hit and white anchors, white keeps his dangerous board for longer whilst waiting on the bar. Worse for blue if white hits later.
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