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Cube action

Posted By: Igor
Date: Friday, 9 August 2013, at 4:50 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action (Stick)

Right, this 54S-44P-F-C sequence is about 0.050 double and 0.225 take.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 163
Unlimited Game
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.84% (G:25.39% B:1.11%) 65.95% (G:26.74% B:1.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.16% (G:7.42% B:0.31%) 34.05% (G:7.59% B:0.34%)
Cubeless Equities +0.505 +1.038
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.725 (-0.049)0.005 (+0.720..+0.731)
Double/Take:+0.7740.007 (+0.767..+0.781)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.226)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30355598
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute

Rollout by Igor Erovenko
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
54S-44P-F-C [D 774-49] "<=10

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

In the OP blue has a slight improvement since both back checkers started moving and a slight deficiency in that it has a 4 pt rather than a 5 pt. Those I believe effectively cancel each other out. White, on the other hand, is almost 20 pips further behind in the race and has a juicy blot on the blue's bar point. In all 6xS-55A-F-C sequences that juicy blot is just enough to push the positions into the pass category.

I think that 20 more pips down in race plus the bar point blot are enough to push the OP into a pass category. How much of a pass? I don't know; I need to learn how to account for such adjustments from the reference positions.

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