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It's Getting Better All The Time

Posted By: Smcrtorchs
Date: Tuesday, 20 August 2013, at 10:15 p.m.

In Response To: It's Getting Better All The Time (David Rennie)

Hey David,

I am not sure if I can get right the cube actions for equal opponents, but this is what I would do:

1) ND/T 2) D/T 3)D/T 4) D/P

Now for the second question, I should start by declaring that everything depends on the knowledge that each person has for himself and his opponent. Then I should continue by saying that an answer from a more experienced player would help me as well. Without any further knowledge about the players, below you can find how I would think.

If the giant passes then the score is 2a 4a. How much the giant can outplay an open 5-6 player from that score? I believe not a lot. For cube adjusting purposes and to simplify things, I will check a good - common possible scenario for the giant if he passes this cube. Next game the giant turns the cube and the weaker player plays GS. The giant wins a single in that game and the next game is DMP. In many matches of other players, I have noticed that even 5-6 open players tend to have low PR at GS and DMP. So I do not expect that the elo difference of the giant would be big against the 5-6 open player if their elo was computed solely on GS and DMP games played between them and I believe that it is this elo difference that we need to take into account when we examine possible cube adjustments.

Moreover, this is the good scenario and finally from what I remember, on a 4 cube and for a 4 pt match the adjustment for the better player is small. I would guess that the takepoint of the better player increases by 1% for every 50 elo points of difference, and my calculations in my notebook agree with that number for the particular score and cube level, (though I could have miscalculated the whole thing).

As I consider the elo difference for the particular case < 50 elo points, I will assume that the take point for the giant is less than 1% higher than normal. Now I doubt that any take in pos 2 and 3 is that close, so I would not adjust at all in these cases.

Another question, is how difficult is the position to be played by both sides. I do not really expect any side to make big mistakes here so I would not adjust for this reason either. No Gammon price considerations apply here, so that is it.

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