So over the board I froze like a donkey in giant headlights because of my quadraprimophobia, which I believe is defined as the irrational fear of a 4-prime, but I maintain that a 4-prime is scarier than it seems. Like getting buried alive under 4 inches of dirt. One may think what's the big deal about that but imagine you've been taken for a ride to the Jersey Pine Barrens by some mob hitman who's tired and just wants to get home and catch the latest Sopranos episode (maybe the one directed by Steve Buscemi) so he doesn't beat you fully to death and then buries you in too shallow a grave and the only thing that separates you from the air that's 4 inches away from your face is whether you wake up before suffocating. This is what I'm thinking OTB.
But in retrospect what I find so interesting about the sequence is that, like the proverbial frog in the proverbial pot of proverbially boiling water (which is proverbial bullshit, by the way. He always jumps out.) we go from not good enough to too good with two Schrödinger's Cubes™ along the way (where it's right to double and it's right to not double) but on opposite boundaries of the doubling window.
As far as the second question, it's a paradox. If you were actually smart enough to figure out the proper cube action then your ELO couldn't be THAT much below anyone's and your action should be the same as a donkey's. Which in this case, is to double. And not to double. With apologies to Jon Stewart, there is your moment of Zen.
1.)
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| XGID=a-BBCBB----A--a--bbdcAbB--:1:1:1:00:1:1:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 49.59% (G:16.67% B:0.96%) | 50.15% (G:13.06% B:0.58%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 50.41% (G:10.81% B:0.67%) | 49.85% (G:10.20% B:1.06%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.107 | +0.009 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.285 | ±0.010 (+0.275..+0.295) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.009 (-0.276) | ±0.014 (-0.005..+0.022) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.715) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 21.8% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 15 minutes 36 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
2.)
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| XGID=a-BBCBB-A-----a--bbdcBbA--:1:1:1:00:1:1:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 61.97% (G:23.45% B:0.86%) | 62.74% (G:19.21% B:0.78%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 38.03% (G:7.93% B:0.49%) | 37.26% (G:6.39% B:0.39%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.544 | +0.755 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.751 (-0.005) | ±0.009 (+0.741..+0.760) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.755 | ±0.013 (+0.742..+0.769) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.245) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 71.7% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 3 minutes 08 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
3.)
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| ||||
| XGID=a-BBCBBA------a--bbdcCb---:1:1:1:00:1:1:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 69.21% (G:27.63% B:1.17%) | 70.30% (G:20.85% B:0.90%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.79% (G:5.36% B:0.20%) | 29.70% (G:4.92% B:0.32%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.822 | +1.204 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +1.008 | ±0.009 (+0.998..+1.017) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.204 (+0.196) | ±0.012 (+1.192..+1.215) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (-0.008) | |
| Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass | ||
| Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 3.8% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 94.7% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 3 minutes 14 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
4.)
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| ||||
| XGID=a-BBCBC-------a-AbbdcBb---:1:1:1:00:1:1:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 82.72% (G:42.29% B:1.83%) | 84.79% (G:32.43% B:1.14%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 17.28% (G:2.85% B:0.15%) | 15.21% (G:2.08% B:0.14%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +1.429 | +2.062 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +1.534 | ±0.008 (+1.526..+1.542) |
| Redouble/Take: | +2.062 (+0.529) | ±0.010 (+2.052..+2.073) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (-0.534) | |
| Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass | ||
| Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 50.2% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 12 minutes 32 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2