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What did I tell you

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 27 August 2013, at 6:31 p.m.

In Response To: What did I tell you (Stick)

Here's what I do OTB to assess this situation. I first try to figure out approximately how often White can win this game if played DMP. This is most relevant since, White can take this cube with the option to rewhip to 4 no matter what.

I think 25% is a reasonable figure for White's DMP chances. He won't get that much from a well timed ace pt game, and sometimes he may even crash that, but at other times, he may joker in with 55, or win the battle for the 5 pt or to a lessor extent (since he may then end up primed) the 2 pt. At other times, Blue may have issues with his back checker and certainly can have issues is he gets hit a couple of times after attacking on the 5 pt.

So, now if White passes he wins the match about 6% of the time from 9-0. If he takes and recubes NO MATTER WHAT he wins the match 25% (game wins) x 23.8% from 8-4. This is almost 6% so if we factor in the occasional G or BG White can win if he jokers a turn around and wins forward, then we can surely see that he wins more matches if he takes this cube and recubes no matter what.

That's it for me at this lopsided score where many of my cubeless wins will be G's to get to Crawford or even BG's to win the match. I certainly don't cube and kill those, and, most importantly, noting that White has an EASY take since he can decide when to recube.

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