Not a favorite, leading match: cube action?
Posted By: ah_clem In Response To: Not a favorite, leading match: cube action? (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Friday, 4 October 2013, at 1:49 p.m.
In Response To: Not a favorite, leading match: cube action? (Daniel Murphy)
Blue wins whenever he doesn't roll a 2 or a 1 (16 rolls) plus when he rolls 22, for a total of 17. That means he's 47.2% to win.
Since it's the last roll of the game he can double as son as he's inside the doubling window. Assuming Hank got the calculations right at http://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/Nov99/hankb99.htm it would be correct to double at:
3a 4a (40%),
2a 5a (35%), and
2a 4a (37%).
All other scores are holds, although 3a 5a (47.4%) is close enough that it might be a practical double against the right opponent.
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