Well done to narrow it down to two plays ;- They must be these:
The score is 0-0/11. Blue has played 15/7 13/9(2)
| White | 73 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
                      | |||
| Blue | 73 | ||
| Position ID: 29kyAQC/zQEgQA Match ID: EwEAAAAAAAAE | |||
That's the only play that leaves just 2/36 return hits and a double direct shot at the outside checker.
The score is 0-0/11. Blue has played 13/9(2) 11/3
| White | 73 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
   | |||
| Blue | 73 | ||
| Position ID: 27MxEAC/zQEgQA Match ID: EwEAAAAAAAAE | |||
This play gives zero return hits, but only 15/36 shots next turn at the outside checker instead of 20/36. It's also a little less flexible, putting a checker on the 3 point. It also gives 2/36 fewer ways to complete the board. But besides the big swing on 4-3, it has another advantage: White can't safety one checker if he rolls 4-6 or 4-5.
In all, 15/7 13/9(2) seems the more effective — probably worth giving 2/36 shots, although it's not obviously much better — if you had doubled. But you didn't, and your gammon chances just went down, having missed your double shot-plus (27/36 numbers would have hit). The big question is what do you plan to do with the cube next roll? If you're planning on cashing after a fan, or doubling White in after he enters (except with 4-4), you don't want to give him a hitting 4-3 — the swing on that number is larger with you still holding the cube.