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peoria semis - to chicken or not to chicken...

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 7 October 2013, at 4:02 p.m.

In Response To: peoria semis - to chicken or not to chicken... (Rod)

Well done to narrow it down to two plays ;- They must be these:

The score is 0-0/11. Blue has played 15/7 13/9(2)

White73

6X2X2X '3X ' ' ' ' ' ' '

2O2O3O '2O2O1O1X2O '1O '
Blue73
Position ID: 29kyAQC/zQEgQA Match ID: EwEAAAAAAAAE

That's the only play that leaves just 2/36 return hits and a double direct shot at the outside checker.

The score is 0-0/11. Blue has played 13/9(2) 11/3

White73

6X2X2X '3X ' ' ' '1O ' '

2O2O4O '2O2O '1X2O ' ' '
Blue73
Position ID: 27MxEAC/zQEgQA Match ID: EwEAAAAAAAAE

This play gives zero return hits, but only 15/36 shots next turn at the outside checker instead of 20/36. It's also a little less flexible, putting a checker on the 3 point. It also gives 2/36 fewer ways to complete the board. But besides the big swing on 4-3, it has another advantage: White can't safety one checker if he rolls 4-6 or 4-5.

In all, 15/7 13/9(2) seems the more effective probably worth giving 2/36 shots, although it's not obviously much better if you had doubled. But you didn't, and your gammon chances just went down, having missed your double shot-plus (27/36 numbers would have hit). The big question is what do you plan to do with the cube next roll? If you're planning on cashing after a fan, or doubling White in after he enters (except with 4-4), you don't want to give him a hitting 4-3 the swing on that number is larger with you still holding the cube.

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