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Chicken: RO

Posted By: Rod
Date: Tuesday, 8 October 2013, at 7:25 p.m.

In Response To: peoria semis - to chicken or not to chicken... (Rod)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 73
11 point match
pip: 89
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBC-BB-a--A-B-A----c-bbf-:3:1:1:44:0:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout113/9(2) 11/3eq: +0.893
Player:
Opponent:
86.17% (G:15.04% B:0.26%)
13.83% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.001 (+0.892...+0.895) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17.9 seconds
2.Rollout115/7 13/9(2)eq: +0.875 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:
87.01% (G:18.35% B:0.35%)
12.99% (G:0.48% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.001 (+0.873...+0.876) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22.7 seconds
3.XG Roller+13/5 11/3eq: +0.871 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:
85.71% (G:18.34% B:0.38%)
14.29% (G:0.58% B:0.01%)
4.XG Roller+13/5(2)eq: +0.859 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
85.79% (G:18.02% B:0.37%)
14.21% (G:0.54% B:0.00%)
5.3-ply15/11 13/1eq: +0.845 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
85.00% (G:18.76% B:0.40%)
15.00% (G:0.49% B:0.00%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I wavered between the top 2 for about 2 minutes. I felt that I would be cubing Neil out if he danced next roll since I had just missed the blot and that I didn't want to give him the joker (in addition to 4's).

I checked on mobile XG after and the top play wasn't in the top 5 and I told Neil I had been chicken and messed up. I also said I would have made the only other play (giving the 4-3) if I was holding a 2-cube ATS.

Turns out...





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 73
11 point match
pip: 89
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBC-BB-a--A-B-A----c-bbf-:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:11:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout115/7 13/9(2)eq: +1.071
Player:
Opponent:
86.23% (G:20.30% B:0.54%)
13.77% (G:0.52% B:0.01%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+1.067...+1.075) - [100.0%]
Duration: 41.9 seconds
2.Rollout113/9(2) 11/3eq: +1.053 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
85.32% (G:17.16% B:0.38%)
14.68% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+1.049...+1.057) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37.0 seconds
3.XG Roller+13/5(2)eq: +1.017 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:
85.38% (G:19.29% B:0.46%)
14.62% (G:0.45% B:0.00%)
4.3-ply13/5 11/3eq: +1.019 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
85.47% (G:19.31% B:0.40%)
14.53% (G:0.58% B:0.00%)
5.3-ply15/7 13/5eq: +1.016 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:
85.19% (G:22.01% B:0.48%)
14.81% (G:1.56% B:0.01%)
1 537 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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