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Dare-dream: +/+ RO

Posted By: Rod
Date: Tuesday, 8 October 2013, at 7:12 p.m.

In Response To: peoria semis - dare to dream or dream to dare (Rod)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 57
11 point match
pip: 109
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBC-BB-a----B---a--cAcafA:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.34% (G:24.36% B:1.48%) 59.78% (G:23.71% B:1.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.66% (G:7.62% B:0.03%) 40.22% (G:7.63% B:0.16%)
Cubeless Equities +0.377 +0.731
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.4970.004 (+0.493..+0.501)
Redouble/Take:+0.455 (-0.042)0.007 (+0.448..+0.463)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.503)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42998075
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 37 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I decided to do a slightly stronger rollout.

my thoughts OTB were: 18 hits, 9 dances, 9 enters no hit. respectively, average of about 50% to gammon (any 2 probably gives me 3 checkers), a reship to 8 which I knew I was taking (took it OTB in a second), no recube to 8. I thought about this for quite a bit of time, as you might imagine. I wavered. And then I thought "damn, all these people watching me think for 3 minutes... I better make the right play!" ;-) Really what I thought, though, was that if it was wrong it couldn't be much wrong, I wouldn't love to see this cube shipped if I was Neil, and since Neil is the stronger player it should, practically, make it even closer to being correct if it is wrong. This was not a hail mary - my record in live play is too strong for that to be a consideration. I will try to consider the relative strength of an opponent, as I did here, but no hail marys for me. I also wasn't getting another chance to turn the cube in all likelihood.

The other interesting thing... at least one decent open-level player would have dropped this. To which Neil replied "people are too afraid of blots". I knew Neil wasn't passing this. But this consideration probably makes it a practical cube against many opponents. However, if they might consider dropping, you probably don't want them having the 4-cube if they take. interesting.

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