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| XGID=-BBC-BB-a----B---a--cAcafA:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 59.34% (G:24.36% B:1.48%) | 59.78% (G:23.71% B:1.32%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 40.66% (G:7.62% B:0.03%) | 40.22% (G:7.63% B:0.16%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.377 | +0.731 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.497 | ±0.004 (+0.493..+0.501) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.455 (-0.042) | ±0.007 (+0.448..+0.463) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.503) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.1% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 42998075 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 4 hours 37 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
I decided to do a slightly stronger rollout.
my thoughts OTB were: 18 hits, 9 dances, 9 enters no hit. respectively, average of about 50% to gammon (any 2 probably gives me 3 checkers), a reship to 8 which I knew I was taking (took it OTB in a second), no recube to 8. I thought about this for quite a bit of time, as you might imagine. I wavered. And then I thought "damn, all these people watching me think for 3 minutes... I better make the right play!" ;-) Really what I thought, though, was that if it was wrong it couldn't be much wrong, I wouldn't love to see this cube shipped if I was Neil, and since Neil is the stronger player it should, practically, make it even closer to being correct if it is wrong. This was not a hail mary - my record in live play is too strong for that to be a consideration. I will try to consider the relative strength of an opponent, as I did here, but no hail marys for me. I also wasn't getting another chance to turn the cube in all likelihood.
The other interesting thing... at least one decent open-level player would have dropped this. To which Neil replied "people are too afraid of blots". I knew Neil wasn't passing this. But this consideration probably makes it a practical cube against many opponents. However, if they might consider dropping, you probably don't want them having the 4-cube if they take. interesting.