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31-41$-21 explanation?

Posted By: Tenland
Date: Monday, 7 October 2013, at 6:47 p.m.

After opening with a 31, the 24/22 6/5 play is the best third roll splitting play most of the time.

However, xg roller++ thinks 24/23 13/11 is the right idea if the opponent (weakly) slotted as a response with a 41.

I initially thought it was because I didn't want to make his 65 decent, so I tried splitting his back checkers in order to improve his 65. That just made the small split even more dominant.

Can you explain why the small split should be chosen after 31-41$ (and why it becomes more clear after he has split his back checkers)?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162
Unlimited Game
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---BD-B---dE--ac-da---B-:0:0:1:12:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 12

1.XG Roller++24/23 13/11eq: +0,091
Player:
Opponent:
52,13% (G:15,68% B:0,77%)
47,87% (G:13,97% B:0,66%)
2.XG Roller++24/22 6/5eq: +0,070 (-0,022)
Player:
Opponent:
51,78% (G:15,00% B:0,76%)
48,22% (G:14,23% B:0,58%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
pip: 163
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa--BD-B---dE--ac-da---B-:0:0:1:12:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 12

1.XG Roller++24/23 13/11eq: +0,075
Player:
Opponent:
51,61% (G:15,63% B:0,72%)
48,39% (G:14,15% B:0,62%)
2.XG Roller++24/22 6/5eq: +0,030 (-0,045)
Player:
Opponent:
50,70% (G:14,74% B:0,65%)
49,30% (G:14,39% B:0,58%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 

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