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Wins / Gammons Estimations techniques
Posted By: Keene
Date: Tuesday, 8 October 2013, at 8:44 p.m.
A whole lot of this game is figuring out how to get a reasonable estimate of wins / losses / gammons etc, then applying it to a double or take point, and METing it up.
After consuming the Rod / Neil match positions, I realized that there have to be better methods for estimating these positions. At present, I like the method that John O Hagan tends to use for his explanations  thats estimating how many wins are going to come out of 36 / 36 rolls  I find this to be very useful, and fairly straightforward to use. i.e. I hit 11/36, win 10 of those, and slime an extra 3/25 on the misses, which gives me 13/36, or 35.8% ish. Or adjusting that for how many wins are gammons and so on.
My question here is, are there other techniques? What do you use? How quick and proficient are you at it? Be honest now: Are you stabbing at a number that experience has taught you will be a good approximation?
I once asked David Rockwell about a position a couple years ago, and he said something along the lines of.. "you probably win 69.7%, with 11% gammons" I forget which, but we plugged in the position at the time, and he was out by less than .3% (approx.). I recall being mightily impressed at this very quick surmise of the position.
Keene

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