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Rollout Results and Commentary

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 17 October 2013, at 4:46 a.m.

In Response To: Middle Game 65 (Paul Weaver)

The rollout results of five related positions are posted below.

When Blue trails by 23 pips or more he should sit on his 22pt anchor and strengthen his prime. When Blue trails by 8 pips or fewer he should run 22/11. When Blue trails by 9 to 22 pips he should play 22/16 with the 6 and then use the 5 to build his prime. Who could have ever figured that out without a BG bot?

What does Blue gain by playing 22/16 when trailing by 9 to 22 pips, as in Position 1? He gets a direct shot if White rolls 62, he forces White to make ugly plays with 51 64 52 32, and he reduces his chance of getting primed.

Position 1.




White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=---BBBBAA--AbB-b-cbf--B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout122/16 11/6eq: -0.448
Player:
Opponent:
37.31% (G:3.54% B:0.07%)
62.69% (G:4.30% B:0.10%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.453...-0.444) - [91.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout122/16 8/3eq: -0.453 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
36.99% (G:3.50% B:0.07%)
63.01% (G:4.84% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.457...-0.448) - [9.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout122/16 7/2eq: -0.465 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:
36.96% (G:4.77% B:0.11%)
63.04% (G:6.15% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.469...-0.460) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 18 seconds
4.Rollout122/11eq: -0.471 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:
36.63% (G:2.60% B:0.05%)
63.37% (G:3.19% B:0.05%)
Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.475...-0.467) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 39 seconds
5.Rollout28/2 7/2eq: -0.507 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:
36.14% (G:3.54% B:0.05%)
63.86% (G:3.35% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.517...-0.497) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds
6.Rollout222/16 13/8eq: -0.513 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:
35.77% (G:3.99% B:0.10%)
64.23% (G:5.88% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.523...-0.504) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds
7.Rollout211/5 7/2eq: -0.520 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
35.43% (G:3.35% B:0.05%)
64.57% (G:3.59% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.529...-0.511) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 21 seconds
8.Rollout211/6 8/2eq: -0.525 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent:
35.49% (G:3.50% B:0.06%)
64.51% (G:3.81% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.535...-0.516) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 40 seconds
9.Rollout213/8 13/7eq: -0.545 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:
34.89% (G:3.05% B:0.06%)
65.11% (G:3.10% B:0.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.554...-0.536) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 31 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=---BBBB----AbD-b-cbf--B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: -0.736
Player:
Opponent:
29.37% (G:2.56% B:0.05%)
70.63% (G:3.63% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.742...-0.730) - [67.3%]
Duration: 10 minutes 25 seconds
2.Rollout113/8 11/5eq: -0.738 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
29.11% (G:2.59% B:0.05%)
70.89% (G:3.63% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.745...-0.731) - [31.3%]
Duration: 9 minutes 53 seconds
3.Rollout113/7 11/6eq: -0.745 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:
28.99% (G:2.67% B:0.05%)
71.01% (G:3.65% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.751...-0.738) - [0.8%]
Duration: 9 minutes 41 seconds
4.Rollout213/2eq: -0.748 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
28.82% (G:2.64% B:0.08%)
71.18% (G:3.87% B:0.08%)
Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.757...-0.739) - [0.5%]
Duration: 4 minutes 39 seconds
5.Rollout122/16 13/8eq: -0.753 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:
29.37% (G:3.28% B:0.09%)
70.63% (G:8.11% B:0.13%)
Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.763...-0.744) - [0.1%]
Duration: 10 minutes 00 second
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 3.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=---BBBB---A-bD-b-cbf--B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout122/16 13/8eq: -0.724
Player:
Opponent:
29.83% (G:3.22% B:0.09%)
70.17% (G:7.61% B:0.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.731...-0.716) - [66.3%]
Duration: 13 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout213/8 13/7eq: -0.726 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
29.74% (G:2.63% B:0.06%)
70.26% (G:3.56% B:0.07%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.731...-0.720) - [33.7%]
Duration: 14 minutes 36 seconds
1 3254 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 3255 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 4.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 129
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBBBB-A--bB-b-cbf--B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout122/16 9/4eq: -0.362
Player:
Opponent:
40.00% (G:3.59% B:0.06%)
60.00% (G:3.83% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.369...-0.355) - [99.9%]
Duration: 6 minutes 18 seconds
2.Rollout122/11eq: -0.376 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
39.71% (G:2.88% B:0.05%)
60.29% (G:2.79% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.383...-0.370) - [0.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 49 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 5.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 128
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBBBBA---bB-b-cbf--B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout122/11eq: -0.340
Player:
Opponent:
40.88% (G:3.02% B:0.06%)
59.12% (G:2.60% B:0.04%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.343...-0.337) - [94.1%]
Duration: 22 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout122/16 8/3eq: -0.344 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:
40.61% (G:4.08% B:0.08%)
59.39% (G:4.11% B:0.09%)
Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.347...-0.340) - [5.9%]
Duration: 24 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout222/16 7/2eq: -0.360 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
40.43% (G:6.03% B:0.12%)
59.57% (G:5.61% B:0.19%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.368...-0.352) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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