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Rollout Results and Commentary

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 17 October 2013, at 4:46 a.m.

In Response To: Middle Game 65 (Paul Weaver)

The rollout results of five related positions are posted below.

When Blue trails by 23 pips or more he should sit on his 22pt anchor and strengthen his prime. When Blue trails by 8 pips or fewer he should run 22/11. When Blue trails by 9 to 22 pips he should play 22/16 with the 6 and then use the 5 to build his prime. Who could have ever figured that out without a BG bot?

What does Blue gain by playing 22/16 when trailing by 9 to 22 pips, as in Position 1? He gets a direct shot if White rolls 62, he forces White to make ugly plays with 51 64 52 32, and he reduces his chance of getting primed.

Position 1.

		White is NevzatDogan score: 0 pip: 120 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 132 score: 0 Blue is peever
XGID=---BBBBAA--AbB-b-cbf--B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.	Rollout1	22/16 11/6	eq: -0.448
	Player: Opponent: 37.31% (G:3.54% B:0.07%) 62.69% (G:4.30% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.453...-0.444) - [91.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 46 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/16 8/3	eq: -0.453 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 36.99% (G:3.50% B:0.07%) 63.01% (G:4.84% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.457...-0.448) - [9.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 19 seconds
3.	Rollout1	22/16 7/2	eq: -0.465 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 36.96% (G:4.77% B:0.11%) 63.04% (G:6.15% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.469...-0.460) - [0.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 18 seconds
4.	Rollout1	22/11	eq: -0.471 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 36.63% (G:2.60% B:0.05%) 63.37% (G:3.19% B:0.05%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.475...-0.467) - [0.0%] Duration: 18 minutes 39 seconds
5.	Rollout2	8/2 7/2	eq: -0.507 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 36.14% (G:3.54% B:0.05%) 63.86% (G:3.35% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.517...-0.497) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds
6.	Rollout2	22/16 13/8	eq: -0.513 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 35.77% (G:3.99% B:0.10%) 64.23% (G:5.88% B:0.19%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.523...-0.504) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds
7.	Rollout2	11/5 7/2	eq: -0.520 (-0.072)
	Player: Opponent: 35.43% (G:3.35% B:0.05%) 64.57% (G:3.59% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.529...-0.511) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 21 seconds
8.	Rollout2	11/6 8/2	eq: -0.525 (-0.077)
	Player: Opponent: 35.49% (G:3.50% B:0.06%) 64.51% (G:3.81% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.535...-0.516) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 40 seconds
9.	Rollout2	13/8 13/7	eq: -0.545 (-0.097)
	Player: Opponent: 34.89% (G:3.05% B:0.06%) 65.11% (G:3.10% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.554...-0.536) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 31 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2. White is NevzatDogan score: 0 pip: 120 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 143 score: 0 Blue is peever XGID=---BBBB----AbD-b-cbf--B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 65 1. Rollout1 13/8 13/7 eq: -0.736 Player: Opponent: 29.37% (G:2.56% B:0.05%) 70.63% (G:3.63% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.742...-0.730) - [67.3%] Duration: 10 minutes 25 seconds 2. Rollout1 13/8 11/5 eq: -0.738 (-0.002) Player: Opponent: 29.11% (G:2.59% B:0.05%) 70.89% (G:3.63% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.745...-0.731) - [31.3%] Duration: 9 minutes 53 seconds 3. Rollout1 13/7 11/6 eq: -0.745 (-0.009) Player: Opponent: 28.99% (G:2.67% B:0.05%) 71.01% (G:3.65% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.751...-0.738) - [0.8%] Duration: 9 minutes 41 seconds 4. Rollout2 13/2 eq: -0.748 (-0.013) Player: Opponent: 28.82% (G:2.64% B:0.08%) 71.18% (G:3.87% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.757...-0.739) - [0.5%] Duration: 4 minutes 39 seconds 5. Rollout1 22/16 13/8 eq: -0.753 (-0.018) Player: Opponent: 29.37% (G:3.28% B:0.09%) 70.63% (G:8.11% B:0.13%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.763...-0.744) - [0.1%] Duration: 10 minutes 00 second 1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 3. White is NevzatDogan score: 0 pip: 120 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 142 score: 0 Blue is peever XGID=---BBBB---A-bD-b-cbf--B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 65 1. Rollout1 22/16 13/8 eq: -0.724 Player: Opponent: 29.83% (G:3.22% B:0.09%) 70.17% (G:7.61% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.731...-0.716) - [66.3%] Duration: 13 minutes 46 seconds 2. Rollout2 13/8 13/7 eq: -0.726 (-0.002) Player: Opponent: 29.74% (G:2.63% B:0.06%) 70.26% (G:3.56% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.731...-0.720) - [33.7%] Duration: 14 minutes 36 seconds 1 3254 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 3255 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 4. White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 120 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 129 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=---BBBBB-A--bB-b-cbf--B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 65 1. Rollout1 22/16 9/4 eq: -0.362 Player: Opponent: 40.00% (G:3.59% B:0.06%) 60.00% (G:3.83% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.369...-0.355) - [99.9%] Duration: 6 minutes 18 seconds 2. Rollout1 22/11 eq: -0.376 (-0.014) Player: Opponent: 39.71% (G:2.88% B:0.05%) 60.29% (G:2.79% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.383...-0.370) - [0.1%] Duration: 5 minutes 49 seconds 1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 5. White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 120 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 128 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=---BBBBBA---bB-b-cbf--B---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 65 1. Rollout1 22/11 eq: -0.340 Player: Opponent: 40.88% (G:3.02% B:0.06%) 59.12% (G:2.60% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.343...-0.337) - [94.1%] Duration: 22 minutes 47 seconds 2. Rollout1 22/16 8/3 eq: -0.344 (-0.004) Player: Opponent: 40.61% (G:4.08% B:0.08%) 59.39% (G:4.11% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.347...-0.340) - [5.9%] Duration: 24 minutes 18 seconds 3. Rollout2 22/16 7/2 eq: -0.360 (-0.020) Player: Opponent: 40.43% (G:6.03% B:0.12%) 59.57% (G:5.61% B:0.19%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.368...-0.352) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds 1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Middle Game 65
  Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 15 October 2013, at 7:43 p.m.
  • Middle Game 65
    Rod -- Tuesday, 15 October 2013, at 8:36 p.m.
  • Middle Game 65
    Stick -- Tuesday, 15 October 2013, at 9:04 p.m.
    • Middle Game 65
      ah_clem -- Wednesday, 16 October 2013, at 2:22 p.m.
      • Middle Game 65
        Keene -- Wednesday, 16 October 2013, at 2:41 p.m.
    • Middle Game 65
      Stick -- Wednesday, 16 October 2013, at 3:56 p.m.
      • Middle Game 65
        Keene -- Wednesday, 16 October 2013, at 4:04 p.m.
  • Middle Game 65
    Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 16 October 2013, at 1:33 p.m.
  • Middle Game 65
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 16 October 2013, at 2:20 p.m.
  • Rollout Results and Commentary
    Paul Weaver -- Thursday, 17 October 2013, at 4:46 a.m.