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Rollout Results and Commentary
Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 17 October 2013, at 4:46 a.m.
In Response To: Middle Game 65 (Paul Weaver)
The rollout results of five related positions are posted below.
When Blue trails by 23 pips or more he should sit on his 22pt anchor and strengthen his prime. When Blue trails by 8 pips or fewer he should run 22/11. When Blue trails by 9 to 22 pips he should play 22/16 with the 6 and then use the 5 to build his prime. Who could have ever figured that out without a BG bot?
What does Blue gain by playing 22/16 when trailing by 9 to 22 pips, as in Position 1? He gets a direct shot if White rolls 62, he forces White to make ugly plays with 51 64 52 32, and he reduces his chance of getting primed.
Position 1.
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 120Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 132
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=BBBBAAAbBbcbfB:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 65
1. Rollout^{1} 22/16 11/6 eq: 0.448
Player:
Opponent:37.31% (G:3.54% B:0.07%)
62.69% (G:4.30% B:0.10%)Conf.: ± 0.005 (0.453...0.444)  [91.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 46 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 22/16 8/3 eq: 0.453 (0.004)
Player:
Opponent:36.99% (G:3.50% B:0.07%)
63.01% (G:4.84% B:0.11%)Conf.: ± 0.004 (0.457...0.448)  [9.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 19 seconds3. Rollout^{1} 22/16 7/2 eq: 0.465 (0.016)
Player:
Opponent:36.96% (G:4.77% B:0.11%)
63.04% (G:6.15% B:0.21%)Conf.: ± 0.005 (0.469...0.460)  [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 18 seconds4. Rollout^{1} 22/11 eq: 0.471 (0.023)
Player:
Opponent:36.63% (G:2.60% B:0.05%)
63.37% (G:3.19% B:0.05%)Conf.: ± 0.004 (0.475...0.467)  [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 39 seconds5. Rollout^{2} 8/2 7/2 eq: 0.507 (0.059)
Player:
Opponent:36.14% (G:3.54% B:0.05%)
63.86% (G:3.35% B:0.06%)Conf.: ± 0.010 (0.517...0.497)  [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds6. Rollout^{2} 22/16 13/8 eq: 0.513 (0.065)
Player:
Opponent:35.77% (G:3.99% B:0.10%)
64.23% (G:5.88% B:0.19%)Conf.: ± 0.009 (0.523...0.504)  [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds7. Rollout^{2} 11/5 7/2 eq: 0.520 (0.072)
Player:
Opponent:35.43% (G:3.35% B:0.05%)
64.57% (G:3.59% B:0.09%)Conf.: ± 0.009 (0.529...0.511)  [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 21 seconds8. Rollout^{2} 11/6 8/2 eq: 0.525 (0.077)
Player:
Opponent:35.49% (G:3.50% B:0.06%)
64.51% (G:3.81% B:0.08%)Conf.: ± 0.009 (0.535...0.516)  [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 40 seconds9. Rollout^{2} 13/8 13/7 eq: 0.545 (0.097)
Player:
Opponent:34.89% (G:3.05% B:0.06%)
65.11% (G:3.10% B:0.06%)Conf.: ± 0.009 (0.554...0.536)  [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 31 seconds^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 2.
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 120Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 143
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=BBBBAbDbcbfB:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 65
1. Rollout^{1} 13/8 13/7 eq: 0.736
Player:
Opponent:29.37% (G:2.56% B:0.05%)
70.63% (G:3.63% B:0.07%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (0.742...0.730)  [67.3%]
Duration: 10 minutes 25 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 13/8 11/5 eq: 0.738 (0.002)
Player:
Opponent:29.11% (G:2.59% B:0.05%)
70.89% (G:3.63% B:0.07%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.745...0.731)  [31.3%]
Duration: 9 minutes 53 seconds3. Rollout^{1} 13/7 11/6 eq: 0.745 (0.009)
Player:
Opponent:28.99% (G:2.67% B:0.05%)
71.01% (G:3.65% B:0.07%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (0.751...0.738)  [0.8%]
Duration: 9 minutes 41 seconds4. Rollout^{2} 13/2 eq: 0.748 (0.013)
Player:
Opponent:28.82% (G:2.64% B:0.08%)
71.18% (G:3.87% B:0.08%)Conf.: ± 0.009 (0.757...0.739)  [0.5%]
Duration: 4 minutes 39 seconds5. Rollout^{1} 22/16 13/8 eq: 0.753 (0.018)
Player:
Opponent:29.37% (G:3.28% B:0.09%)
70.63% (G:8.11% B:0.13%)Conf.: ± 0.010 (0.763...0.744)  [0.1%]
Duration: 10 minutes 00 second^{1} 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 3.
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 120Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 142
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=BBBBAbDbcbfB:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 65
1. Rollout^{1} 22/16 13/8 eq: 0.724
Player:
Opponent:29.83% (G:3.22% B:0.09%)
70.17% (G:7.61% B:0.11%)Conf.: ± 0.008 (0.731...0.716)  [66.3%]
Duration: 13 minutes 46 seconds2. Rollout^{2} 13/8 13/7 eq: 0.726 (0.002)
Player:
Opponent:29.74% (G:2.63% B:0.06%)
70.26% (G:3.56% B:0.07%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (0.731...0.720)  [33.7%]
Duration: 14 minutes 36 seconds^{1} 3254 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 3255 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 4.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 120Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 129
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=BBBBBAbBbcbfB:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 65
1. Rollout^{1} 22/16 9/4 eq: 0.362
Player:
Opponent:40.00% (G:3.59% B:0.06%)
60.00% (G:3.83% B:0.09%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.369...0.355)  [99.9%]
Duration: 6 minutes 18 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 22/11 eq: 0.376 (0.014)
Player:
Opponent:39.71% (G:2.88% B:0.05%)
60.29% (G:2.79% B:0.04%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (0.383...0.370)  [0.1%]
Duration: 5 minutes 49 seconds^{1} 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 5.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 120Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 128
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=BBBBBAbBbcbfB:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 65
1. Rollout^{1} 22/11 eq: 0.340
Player:
Opponent:40.88% (G:3.02% B:0.06%)
59.12% (G:2.60% B:0.04%)Conf.: ± 0.003 (0.343...0.337)  [94.1%]
Duration: 22 minutes 47 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 22/16 8/3 eq: 0.344 (0.004)
Player:
Opponent:40.61% (G:4.08% B:0.08%)
59.39% (G:4.11% B:0.09%)Conf.: ± 0.003 (0.347...0.340)  [5.9%]
Duration: 24 minutes 18 seconds3. Rollout^{2} 22/16 7/2 eq: 0.360 (0.020)
Player:
Opponent:40.43% (G:6.03% B:0.12%)
59.57% (G:5.61% B:0.19%)Conf.: ± 0.008 (0.368...0.352)  [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds^{1} 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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