Rollout Results and Commentary

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Rollout Results and Commentary

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 21 October 2013, at 5:05 p.m.

In Response To: Early Game 31 (Paul Weaver)

Breaking the 7pt to hit loose on the 3pt is the best play in Position 1 by .045. Even when White has her best 3pt board, hitting is still best in Position 2 by .019.

Position 1.

White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 143

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is peever

XGID=---aBBBBA---dDa--c-db--AA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 7/3* eq: -0.189
Player:
Opponent: 45.29% (G:15.71% B:0.42%)
54.71% (G:16.36% B:1.21%) Conf.: ą 0.037 (-0.226...-0.151) - [96.5%]
Duration: 54.6 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/21 8/7 eq: -0.234 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent: 42.91% (G:10.75% B:0.40%)
57.09% (G:10.73% B:0.24%) Conf.: ą 0.030 (-0.264...-0.204) - [3.2%]
Duration: 50.6 seconds
3. Rollout² 23/22 8/5 eq: -0.260 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent: 42.57% (G:12.10% B:0.49%)
57.43% (G:12.68% B:0.66%) Conf.: ą 0.037 (-0.297...-0.223) - [0.3%]
Duration: 52.3 seconds

¹ 170 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 169 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2.

White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 139

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is peever

XGID=---aBBBBA---dDa--c-bbb-AA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 7/3* eq: -0.513
Player:
Opponent: 37.59% (G:11.51% B:0.37%)
62.41% (G:22.16% B:1.81%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.520...-0.505) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 34 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 23/22 8/5 eq: -0.532 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent: 35.90% (G:9.05% B:0.29%)
64.10% (G:13.50% B:0.65%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.539...-0.525) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 56 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2 and its rollout data make their second appearance in this post, this time with a different companion, Position 3. The only difference between Position 2 and Position 3 is the location of White's blot on her 10pt or 11pt. How hitting be right in Position 2 but wrong in Position 3?
If Blue hits in neither position, White is stronger in Position 2 than in Position 3. White's 63 is duplicated in Position 3 (22/13 and 13/7 10/7) and her 64 is not so good in Position 3. However, White's 63 in Position 2 is strong (22/13) and her 64 is strong as well (13/7 11/7). Also, White's 65 plays better in Position 2 (no blots no shots) than her 65 plays in Position 3.
Blue has more motivation to hit in Position 2 than in Position 3, because White's numbers play better on average in Position 2 than in Position 3.
Who among us is a strong enough player to be able to figure out over the board that hitting is right in Position 2 but wrong in Position 3?

Position 2.

White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 139

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is peever

XGID=---aBBBBA---dDa--c-bbb-AA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 7/3* eq: -0.513
Player:
Opponent: 37.59% (G:11.51% B:0.37%)
62.41% (G:22.16% B:1.81%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.520...-0.505) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 34 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 23/22 8/5 eq: -0.532 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent: 35.90% (G:9.05% B:0.29%)
64.10% (G:13.50% B:0.65%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.539...-0.525) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 56 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 3.

White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 138

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is peever

XGID=---aBBBBA---dD-a-c-bbb-AA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 23/22 8/5 eq: -0.500
Player:
Opponent: 36.71% (G:9.30% B:0.30%)
63.29% (G:14.43% B:0.65%) Conf.: ą 0.002 (-0.503...-0.498) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 42 minutes
2. Rollout² 7/3* eq: -0.509 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent: 37.74% (G:11.23% B:0.36%)
62.26% (G:21.94% B:1.75%) Conf.: ą 0.002 (-0.512...-0.507) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes

¹ 47022 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 47023 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 4 shows the cube action after White makes the mistake of fanning in a related position. Position 5 shows cube action with White on shake from the roof in a related position.

Position 4.

White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 145

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is peever

XGID=a--ABBBAA---dD-a-c-db--AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.01% (G:28.19% B:0.62%) 62.45% (G:29.60% B:0.72%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.99% (G:9.16% B:0.48%) 37.55% (G:9.48% B:0.59%)
Cubeless Equities +0.432 +0.903
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.585 (-0.019) ą0.011 (+0.574..+0.595)
Double/Take: +0.603 ą0.017 (+0.586..+0.621)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.397)

Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Double Decision confidence: 96.4%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 5.

White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 141

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is peever

XGID=a--ABBBAA---dD-a-c-bbb-AA-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.00% (G:22.70% B:1.80%) 61.78% (G:24.84% B:2.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.00% (G:11.28% B:0.35%) 38.22% (G:11.94% B:0.40%)
Cubeless Equities +0.369 +0.767
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.510 ą0.024 (+0.486..+0.534)
Double/Take: +0.480 (-0.030) ą0.032 (+0.447..+0.512)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.490)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.5%
Rollout details
588 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Double Decision confidence: 92.8%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 3 makes another appearance, this time with a new companion, Position 6. Hitting is wrong in Position 3, but in Position 6, where White has more attacking material (an extra checker in the zone, on the 6pt), Blue should hit to limit White's attacking numbers.

Position 3.

White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 138

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is peever

XGID=---aBBBBA---dD-a-c-bbb-AA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 23/22 8/5 eq: -0.500
Player:
Opponent: 36.71% (G:9.30% B:0.30%)
63.29% (G:14.43% B:0.65%) Conf.: ą 0.002 (-0.503...-0.498) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 42 minutes
2. Rollout² 7/3* eq: -0.509 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent: 37.74% (G:11.23% B:0.36%)
62.26% (G:21.94% B:1.75%) Conf.: ą 0.002 (-0.512...-0.507) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes

¹ 47022 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 47023 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 6.

White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 131

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is peever

XGID=---aBBBBA---cD-a-c-cbb-AA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 7/3* eq: -0.587
Player:
Opponent: 37.87% (G:10.34% B:0.38%)
62.13% (G:27.78% B:3.01%) Conf.: ą 0.016 (-0.603...-0.571) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 15 seconds
2. Rollout² 23/22 8/5 eq: -0.619 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent: 34.65% (G:7.98% B:0.30%)
65.35% (G:18.59% B:0.81%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.627...-0.612) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 43 seconds

¹ 2908 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 2907 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2 makes a third and final appearance, with a new companion Position 7, where Blue now owns the cube. Owning the cube, Blue should not hit in Position 7 because of the gammons (24% vs 14%). This result raises the question, "What if the Jacoby rule were not in effect? Scroll down to see Position 8.

Position 2.

White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 139

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is peever

XGID=---aBBBBA---dDa--c-bbb-AA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 7/3* eq: -0.513
Player:
Opponent: 37.59% (G:11.51% B:0.37%)
62.41% (G:22.16% B:1.81%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.520...-0.505) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 34 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 23/22 8/5 eq: -0.532 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent: 35.90% (G:9.05% B:0.29%)
64.10% (G:13.50% B:0.65%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.539...-0.525) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 56 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 7.

White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 139

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is peever

XGID=---aBBBBA---dDa--c-bbb-AA-:1:1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 23/22 8/5 eq: -0.213
Player:
Opponent: 35.63% (G:9.19% B:0.26%)
64.37% (G:13.88% B:0.69%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.222...-0.204) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 30 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 7/3* eq: -0.246 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent: 37.74% (G:11.96% B:0.40%)
62.26% (G:24.27% B:2.50%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (-0.257...-0.235) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 22 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 8. (No Jacoby Rule).

White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 139

Unlimited Game
No Jacoby

pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is peever

XGID=---aBBBBA---dDa--c-bbb-AA-:0:0:1:31:0:0:2:0:10
Blue to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 7/3* eq: -0.522
Player:
Opponent: 37.72% (G:11.75% B:0.37%)
62.28% (G:22.60% B:2.05%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.531...-0.513) - [99.4%]
Duration: 18 minutes 10 seconds
2. Rollout² 23/22 8/5 eq: -0.537 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent: 35.96% (G:9.12% B:0.28%)
64.04% (G:13.98% B:0.70%) Conf.: ą 0.008 (-0.545...-0.529) - [0.6%]
Duration: 17 minutes 56 seconds

¹ 3657 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 3659 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

Early Game 31
Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 20 October 2013, at 5:07 p.m.
- Early Game 31
  Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 21 October 2013, at 7:03 a.m.
- Rollout Results and Commentary
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 21 October 2013, at 5:05 p.m.
  - Outstanding Analysis by Paul
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 21 October 2013, at 6:13 p.m.
    - Thanks, Mike, For HTML Help
      Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 22 October 2013, at 12:22 a.m.

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