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Rollout Results Posted, Comment for Xavier

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Tuesday, 12 November 2013, at 4:41 p.m.

In Response To: I Bet Most Would Double-Whopper-Cheese This OTB (Paul Weaver)

Scroll down to see the diagrams of the positions after the three plays have been made. Cube action rollout results are posted.

Here is my comment for Xavier. eXtreme Gammon is truly outstanding and amazing, as it currently stands. Anyone can dream up new features he would like to see. Here's my request.

When we do a rollout, we have three options in the drop-down box: Checker Play, Double Action and Take Action. I am proposing a new category of Checker & Cube. In this position, I want to know both the checker play and the cube action after the three best checker plays. It would be great if XG could give me the option to get both checker play and cube action in the same file. Also, it would be interesting to see both the initial double and the redouble data. Thanks for considering this request.

Position 1. (The original posted position)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 83 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 116 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBB-Aa---B---b-dcBbc--:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.	Rollout1	21/16 21/15	eq: -0.711
	Player: Opponent: 31.13% (G:1.72% B:0.03%) 68.87% (G:11.28% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.721...-0.701) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/8 13/7	eq: -0.970 (-0.259)
	Player: Opponent: 23.63% (G:1.34% B:0.03%) 76.37% (G:2.03% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.978...-0.962) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/2 6/1	eq: -1.000 (-0.289)
	Player: Opponent: 22.57% (G:1.21% B:0.03%) 77.43% (G:7.28% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.000 (-1.000...-1.000) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2. Cube action after the best play. Coming off the anchor with two leaves two blots and 20 shots. It also gives White some very bad numbers: 11 21 31 41 51 22 32 44. Blue gets lot of shots after these 13 numbers. Blue also gets a direct (13-number) shot after White's 66. Blue gets indirect returns on most of White's other hits. Blue loses 11% Gs, but wins more than enough games (31% vs 24%) to compensate for these G losses.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 83 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 105 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBB-Aa---B-AAb-dc-bc--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68.59% (G:10.48% B:0.10%)	68.95% (G:10.93% B:0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31.41% (G:1.72% B:0.04%)	31.05% (G:1.72% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.460	+0.943
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.426 (-0.278)	±0.004 (+0.421..+0.430)
Double/Take:	+0.703	±0.010 (+0.693..+0.713)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.297)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 3. The second best play is a DWC (double whopper cheese). You lose few gammons and win barely enough games to take.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 83 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 105 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBBABa-------b-dcBbc--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.45% (G:2.43% B:0.03%)	76.24% (G:2.17% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.55% (G:1.22% B:0.03%)	23.76% (G:1.38% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.521	+1.065
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.822 (-0.142)	±0.004 (+0.818..+0.826)
Double/Take:	+0.964	±0.008 (+0.956..+0.972)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.036)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 4. Tough to win this game after busting your board.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 83 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 105 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ACBBBA--a---B---b-dcBbc--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76.70% (G:7.21% B:0.34%)	77.21% (G:7.33% B:0.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.30% (G:1.20% B:0.03%)	22.79% (G:1.22% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.597	+1.216
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.804 (-0.196)	±0.008 (+0.796..+0.812)
Double/Take:	+1.056 (+0.056)	±0.010 (+1.046..+1.066)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• I Bet Most Would Double-Whopper-Cheese This OTB
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 11 November 2013, at 10:27 p.m.
  • I Bet Most Would Double-Whopper-Cheese This OTB
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 12 November 2013, at 12:38 a.m.
    • I Bet Most Would Double-Whopper-Cheese This OTB
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 12 November 2013, at 1:45 a.m.
  • I Bet Most Would Double-Whopper-Cheese This OTB
    Fender -- Tuesday, 12 November 2013, at 1:18 p.m.
  • Rollout Results Posted, Comment for Xavier
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 12 November 2013, at 4:41 p.m.