BGonline.org Forums

Rollout Results and Comments

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 17 November 2013, at 5:56 p.m.

In Response To: Cube Action, Money & 4a4a (Paul Weaver)

When Position 1 came up in a money game, I rolled quickly without thinking it might be a double. Upon closer inspection, however, Blue has quite a few advantages over White: (1) Blue has a stronger board than White. You may not be impressed with Blue's underrated acepoint, but it swings White's 11 (when White is on the bar) from a joker to an antijoker. (2) Blue leads in the count by 7 pips. (3) White is on the bar and Blue is not. (4) White has a blot on her acepoint, which greatly reduces her ability to prime, attack and hit loose. (5) In addition to her fans, White has some lousy numbers from the bar: 51 and 62 are bad, while 42 and 43 are not pretty. (6) Blue has over a dozen numbers that give him a three-point board this shake.

Blue wins 64% of the games, along with a non-trivial 24% gammons. Blue closes out White's lone back checker a lot more often than you might think.

Position 2 is just a bit weaker for Blue than Position 1, enough to swing it from a double to a no double. The extra one pip in the count makes a difference, but also, Blue has more numbers that link his back checkers in Position 1 than in Position 2.

If there is anyone out there who would have gotten all four of these right over the board, let me know and I will for you #1 on my Giants' ballot.

Scroll down to see Positions 3 and 4, cube action at -4-4. I cannot be sure what other people would have done, but I bet many players would not double in Positions 3 and 4. I admit I probably would have not doubled.

Position 1. White is NevzatDogan score: 0 pip: 152 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 145 score: 0 Blue is peever XGID=aB----C-D---fD---c-dAA--a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.88% (G:24.49% B:0.43%) 64.14% (G:26.02% B:0.46%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.12% (G:6.91% B:0.24%) 35.86% (G:6.96% B:0.26%) Cubeless Equities +0.455 +0.951 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.648 (-0.024) ±0.012 (+0.636..+0.660) Double/Take: +0.671 ±0.017 (+0.655..+0.688) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.329) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 98.8% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 12 minutes 36 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2. White is NevzatDogan score: 0 pip: 152 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 146 score: 0 Blue is peever XGID=aB----C-D---fD---c-dA-A-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.17% (G:24.04% B:0.37%) 63.49% (G:24.66% B:0.43%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.83% (G:6.88% B:0.26%) 36.51% (G:6.83% B:0.24%) Cubeless Equities +0.436 +0.900 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.620 ±0.009 (+0.610..+0.629) Double/Take: +0.607 (-0.013) ±0.014 (+0.593..+0.620) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.380) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.2% Rollout details 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 94.2% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 24 minutes 44 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 3. White is NevzatDogan score: 0 pip: 152 4 point match pip: 145 score: 0 Blue is peever XGID=aB----C-D---fD---c-dAA--a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:4:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.90% (G:25.04% B:0.48%) 64.06% (G:26.61% B:0.76%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.10% (G:6.56% B:0.32%) 35.94% (G:7.18% B:0.44%) Cubeless Equities +0.533 +1.564 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.824 (-0.176) ±0.017 (+0.806..+0.841) Double/Take: +1.053 (+0.053) ±0.025 (+1.028..+1.079) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 13 minutes 18 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 4. White is NevzatDogan score: 0 pip: 152 4 point match pip: 146 score: 0 Blue is peever XGID=aB----C-D---fD---c-dA-A-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:4:10 Blue on roll, cube action? Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 63.09% (G:25.06% B:0.58%) 63.52% (G:25.44% B:0.87%) Opponent Winning Chances: 36.91% (G:6.91% B:0.34%) 36.48% (G:7.10% B:0.38%) Cubeless Equities +0.513 +1.488 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.799 (-0.166) ±0.018 (+0.780..+0.817) Double/Take: +0.965 ±0.025 (+0.940..+0.990) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.035) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 99.7% Duration: 14 minutes 14 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Cube Action, Money & 4a4a
  Paul Weaver -- Saturday, 16 November 2013, at 10:42 p.m.
  • Rollout Results and Comments
    Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 17 November 2013, at 5:56 p.m.