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Rollout Results and Comments

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 17 November 2013, at 5:56 p.m.

In Response To: Cube Action, Money & 4a4a (Paul Weaver)

When Position 1 came up in a money game, I rolled quickly without thinking it might be a double. Upon closer inspection, however, Blue has quite a few advantages over White: (1) Blue has a stronger board than White. You may not be impressed with Blue's underrated acepoint, but it swings White's 11 (when White is on the bar) from a joker to an antijoker. (2) Blue leads in the count by 7 pips. (3) White is on the bar and Blue is not. (4) White has a blot on her acepoint, which greatly reduces her ability to prime, attack and hit loose. (5) In addition to her fans, White has some lousy numbers from the bar: 51 and 62 are bad, while 42 and 43 are not pretty. (6) Blue has over a dozen numbers that give him a three-point board this shake.

Blue wins 64% of the games, along with a non-trivial 24% gammons. Blue closes out White's lone back checker a lot more often than you might think.

Position 2 is just a bit weaker for Blue than Position 1, enough to swing it from a double to a no double. The extra one pip in the count makes a difference, but also, Blue has more numbers that link his back checkers in Position 1 than in Position 2.

If there is anyone out there who would have gotten all four of these right over the board, let me know and I will for you #1 on my Giants' ballot.

Scroll down to see Positions 3 and 4, cube action at -4-4. I cannot be sure what other people would have done, but I bet many players would not double in Positions 3 and 4. I admit I probably would have not doubled.

Position 1.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=aB----C-D---fD---c-dAA--a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.88% (G:24.49% B:0.43%) 64.14% (G:26.02% B:0.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.12% (G:6.91% B:0.24%) 35.86% (G:6.96% B:0.26%)
Cubeless Equities +0.455 +0.951
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.648 (-0.024)0.012 (+0.636..+0.660)
Double/Take:+0.6710.017 (+0.655..+0.688)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.329)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:98.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 36 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 146
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=aB----C-D---fD---c-dA-A-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.17% (G:24.04% B:0.37%) 63.49% (G:24.66% B:0.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.83% (G:6.88% B:0.26%) 36.51% (G:6.83% B:0.24%)
Cubeless Equities +0.436 +0.900
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6200.009 (+0.610..+0.629)
Double/Take:+0.607 (-0.013)0.014 (+0.593..+0.620)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.380)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.2%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:94.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 24 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 3.




White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 152
4 point match
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=aB----C-D---fD---c-dAA--a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.90% (G:25.04% B:0.48%) 64.06% (G:26.61% B:0.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.10% (G:6.56% B:0.32%) 35.94% (G:7.18% B:0.44%)
Cubeless Equities +0.533 +1.564
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.824 (-0.176)0.017 (+0.806..+0.841)
Double/Take:+1.053 (+0.053)0.025 (+1.028..+1.079)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 4.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 152
4 point match
pip: 146
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=aB----C-D---fD---c-dA-A-a-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.09% (G:25.06% B:0.58%) 63.52% (G:25.44% B:0.87%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.91% (G:6.91% B:0.34%) 36.48% (G:7.10% B:0.38%)
Cubeless Equities +0.513 +1.488
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.799 (-0.166)0.018 (+0.780..+0.817)
Double/Take:+0.9650.025 (+0.940..+0.990)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.035)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.7%
Duration: 14 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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