First, the take point.
- Double/Pass is 10a 3a or 13% ME
- Double/Take/Lose is 10a 1a C or 4% ME
- Double/Take/Win is 6a 5a or 42% ME
Risking 9% to gain 29% is a dead cube take point of about 24%. Of course cube leverage is huge here and we will turn it at the slightest hint of market loss so perhaps we should replace the DTW line assuming we always recube when we win meaning that would make us 2a 5a or 75%. That would make it risking 9% to gain 62% or a take point of 13%. This is probably more in line with our live cube take point.
Gammons will hardly have an impact from this position because the leader's gammon value is so low and because there aren't that many to begin with.
Using the Keith Count to get some sort of wild idea in my head how often we would win this if it was a straight race we see it's a clear pass by 6 pips. I also have a general idea from reference positions such as the one below how often each player wins from there.
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
In my reference positions the waste is a foregone conclusion so the only wins come from contact. In our actual position the race isn't hopeless. That reference position has an 87%-13% breakdown.
So to sum it up so far, I think the live cube take point is around 13% and from my reference position and feeling for the race I think we definitely have a take. In these lopsided scores esp. when recubing and putting so much on the line we generally have to be very very close to our cash point. Are we close enough? I don't know...in general whether to double or not I would base on my opponent. If it's a weaker player I know would take I definitely would not double. If it's a weaker player who I think might drop and who also wouldn't recube properly for example I could ship it. If I was on the take/drop end of this I would be forced to drop against most players.
Stick