Interesting cube action 1 - RO
Posted By: David Presser In Response To: Interesting cube action 1 (David Presser)
Date: Wednesday, 20 November 2013, at 6:49 a.m.
In Response To: Interesting cube action 1 (David Presser)
I was on the receiving side of the 4 cube. Intuitively, it looked like a redouble/take. Blue losses his market with most of the hitting numbers. However, White has small chances with different game plans: exchange of hits (ugly but still a 4 pt board), race equity, even if he gets hit he has small chances to turn the game around as he will play as bold and aggressive as possible. Since it seems like there is relatively plenty of game to go, blue has very high cube efficiency.
I wanted to back my intuition with the TP for the score. Admittedly, I don't know the ME for 10 away but I observed a pattern that can help me guesstimate it. I computed TPs for 8a-5a and 9a-5a assuming 90% cube efficiency and got about 15.5% and 15% accordingly. Therefore, I guesstimated the TP to be about 14.5%. After that I was quite certain about the take.
As for sending the recube - the redouble seems marginal. I believe it is because that a normal non hitting but safetying rolls (e.g. 62) don't lose the market for Blue. As suggested, I think it should be more of a function of your opponent.
White is Player 1
11 point match pip: 78
Blue is Player 2
XGID=-CCBC-A----a---A-b-dbBbd--:1:-1:-1:00:1:6:0:11:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 84.08% (G:7.89% B:0.15%) 84.16% (G:7.95% B:0.31%) Opponent Winning Chances: 15.92% (G:0.27% B:0.00%) 15.84% (G:0.24% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities +0.752 +1.300 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.904 (-0.011) ±0.004 (+0.900..+0.908) Redouble/Take: +0.915 ±0.008 (+0.907..+0.923) Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.085) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence: 99.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 14 minutes 23 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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