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Interesting cube action 2 - RO

Posted By: David Presser
Date: Wednesday, 20 November 2013, at 7:13 a.m.

In Response To: Interesting cube action 2 (David Presser)

A few rolls later I was facing this position. The Take is clear. I asked myself two questions: 1. what is my win %? 2. When should I send the 8 cube?

As for question 1 - I guesstimated it quite well - lower 40s. That is because of the huge wastage (buried checkers and many cross-overs).

As for question 2 - That was my problem and led me to the wrong conclusion. In general, I look at the cube as a dynamic optimization problem. In the specific position I guess I should have looked at it as a static optimization problem (mainly because of the dead cube once I send it). By that I mean not to look at the market losers (not many), but look at when I reach the ratio of gains to losses that requires me to redouble. I am too lazy and tired to do it now but the gains vs losses ratio suggests that I should redouble.

In the match I didn't redouble to 8 and the "dice gods" punished me with a set of boxes (note to dice gods - please keep punishing me this way). As trivial as it seems on the forum, I discussed it with a couple of strong players (giants) in Florida and they agreed with my action.

Note that this error actually shows that I didn't have 90% cube efficiency in Position 1 (human factor). However, even if you decrease it to 85% (even 80%), you still have a take.

 White is Player 2 score: 6 pip: 63 11 point match pip: 66 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CCBC-A--B-----A---ecabd--:2:1:1:00:1:6:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

 Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 41.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 41.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Opponent Winning Chances: 58.45% (G:0.11% B:0.00%) 58.45% (G:0.11% B:0.00%) Cubeless Equities -0.169 +0.365 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.322 (-0.043) ±0.001 (+0.321..+0.323) Redouble/Take: +0.365 ±0.001 (+0.364..+0.366) Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.635) Best Cube action: Redouble / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 1 minute 36 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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