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OTB and RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 15 December 2013, at 4:21 a.m.

In Response To: The 5 was easy, the 3 was not (neilkaz)

OTB it looked normal to cover and play 8/5 and most kibs including a very strong giant felt that play was basically a "next". However it doesn't address the need to free some of the back checkers noting that I cannot make a prime with just 11 checkers and may have severe problems if I can't free some back checkers, especially if I roll some 4's.

Playing 24/21 doesn't really help me and just can't be right when we cannot lose a gammon and if we get attacked on the ace pt we basically have almost no chances remaining.

This convinced me that 21/18 had to be best. It's only 14 shots and if hit by a non double maybe we can re-anchor or hit back. I managed to convince my partner that 21/18 had to be best long term when we can't lose a G and also noting the chances to make the bar pt and a 5 prime. It would be that 5 prime that saved us later.

		White is Player 2 score: 6 pip: 95 7 point match Crawford pip: 150 score: 3 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--ACBBAB--------c-ccBcbB-:0:0:1:53:3:6:1:7:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	21/18 8/3	eq: +0.1405
	Player: Opponent: 52.83% (G:8.15% B:0.37%) 47.17% (G:28.10% B:12.02%) Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.1384...+0.1426) - [100.0%] Duration: 32 minutes 37 seconds
2.	Rollout1	21/18 21/16	eq: +0.0533 (-0.0872)
	Player: Opponent: 49.17% (G:6.79% B:0.33%) 50.83% (G:32.64% B:16.26%) Conf.: ±0.0024 (+0.0509...+0.0556) - [0.0%] Duration: 39 minutes 49 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/5 8/3	eq: +0.0151 (-0.1254)
	Player: Opponent: 47.64% (G:6.07% B:0.22%) 52.36% (G:26.68% B:7.10%) Conf.: ±0.0021 (+0.0130...+0.0172) - [0.0%] Duration: 31 minutes 08 seconds
4.	Rollout1	24/21 8/3	eq: +0.0001 (-0.1404)
	Player: Opponent: 46.22% (G:7.37% B:0.30%) 53.78% (G:35.53% B:1.91%) Conf.: ±0.0018 (-0.0017...+0.0019) - [0.0%] Duration: 40 minutes 30 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 78623594 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.192.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Note that it is so important to free some back checkers that 21/18 21/16 is the 2nd best play!

Note also that the same 8/3 21/18 is clearly correct for money owning the cube per XGR++

Messages In This Thread

• The 5 was easy, the 3 was not
  neilkaz -- Monday, 9 December 2013, at 10:32 p.m.
  • The 5 was easy, the 3 was not
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 10 December 2013, at 1:58 a.m.
  • The 5 was easy, the 3 was not
    Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 10 December 2013, at 5:35 a.m.
  • The 5 was easy, the 3 was not
    onur alan -- Tuesday, 10 December 2013, at 9:50 a.m.
  • Any more of you want to take a shot at this? *NM*
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 12 December 2013, at 6:23 p.m.
    • Noone has even mentioned the best play
      neilkaz -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 4:53 p.m.
      • Noone has even mentioned the best play
        Stick -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 11:07 p.m.
  • The 5 was easy, the 3 was not
    Keene -- Thursday, 12 December 2013, at 7:31 p.m.
  • OTB and RO
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 15 December 2013, at 4:21 a.m.
    • OTB and RO
      Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 15 December 2013, at 4:36 a.m.